Don't Bet Home Run Props This MLB Season Based on This Key Stat

Home runs are down across Major League Baseball in 2022.
Home runs are down across Major League Baseball in 2022. / Christian Petersen/GettyImages

Are you an MLB prop bettor? Do you like sprinkling on your favorite players to hit a home run?

If so, you've probably noticed that you're struggling to win those bets this season. Well, it's not entirely your fault. Which, to be fair, is welcome news for someone who's only hit their daily dinger twice this year.

Home runs are down in a massive way in 2022.

Twice as Many MLB Games Don't See a Home Run in 2022

So far this MLB season, 19.4% of games played haven't had a home run scored in them. That's up a staggering 9.5% from 2021. That's a MASSIVE difference.

This is also reflected in the "home runs per game" number. According to, we're seeing an average of .92 home runs per game this season, which is down from 1.22 last season, and 1.28 in 2020.

This is apparently due to MLB using balls with less pop in them. Many are referring to them as "dead balls". There's been no word on why MLB has made this change, but it's having a huge effect on games, and in turn, our home run props.

If you're going to continue to bet on home run props (I get it, they're fun), it's smart to significantly lower your bet size for them. They were already extremely difficult to be profitable with them long term, and now it's practically impossible.

You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.