Don't Bet Home Run Props This MLB Season Based on This Key Stat
Are you an MLB prop bettor? Do you like sprinkling on your favorite players to hit a home run?
If so, you've probably noticed that you're struggling to win those bets this season. Well, it's not entirely your fault. Which, to be fair, is welcome news for someone who's only hit their daily dinger twice this year.
Home runs are down in a massive way in 2022.
Twice as Many MLB Games Don't See a Home Run in 2022
So far this MLB season, 19.4% of games played haven't had a home run scored in them. That's up a staggering 9.5% from 2021. That's a MASSIVE difference.
Almost 20% of games this season are ending without a home run. That's about 2x the rate from 2016-21. pic.twitter.com/LfNyIz2kWA
— Ballpark Pal (@BallparkPal) May 10, 2022
This is also reflected in the "home runs per game" number. According to baseball-reference.com, we're seeing an average of .92 home runs per game this season, which is down from 1.22 last season, and 1.28 in 2020.
This is apparently due to MLB using balls with less pop in them. Many are referring to them as "dead balls". There's been no word on why MLB has made this change, but it's having a huge effect on games, and in turn, our home run props.
@MLB @MLBPA @MLB_PR @MLBPAA @MLBPA_News @MLBNetwork @MLBPA_News BETTER LEARN TO HIT LINE DRIVES!!! The trends of hitters elevating, catchers on the bums and the advent of the “dead ball” are a real thing. Pitchers will eventually adapt to elevating fastballs and K’s will ⬆️. pic.twitter.com/B8Azf3I5Ga
— iCoachHitting.com (@iCoachhitting) May 6, 2022
If you're going to continue to bet on home run props (I get it, they're fun), it's smart to significantly lower your bet size for them. They were already extremely difficult to be profitable with them long term, and now it's practically impossible.
You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.