Every Team's Odds to Win the AFC After Opening Week of NFL Free Agency

Breaking down the odds for every team to win the AFC after the first week of NFL free agency.

Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud.
Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud. / Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports
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The AFC has been run by the Kansas City Chiefs for multiple seasons, but there are a few teams that could be making a push for the crown in 2024 -- including one that has made a major splash so far this offseason.

After the Super Bowl, I took a look at each team's odds to win the AFC, where the Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals were the clear favorites.

While that hasn't changed, there has been some interesting movement with teams in the secondary tier to win the conference. Let's break it down.

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Odds to Win the AFC in the 2024 Season

Texans Surging in Odds to win AFC

Houston has made some major splashes this offseason, adding running back Joe Mixon as well as pass rusher and four-time Pro Bowler Danielle Hunter to the roster.

The Texans won the AFC South in CJ Stroud's rookie season, and oddsmakers appear to be high on Houston to repeat as the division champs (+135 to do so).

As for winning the AFC, the Texans have moved from +1400 to +1100 since the start of free agency.

Oddsmakers Not Sold on Jaguars in 2024 Season

Jacksonville had an epic collapse in the 2023 season, failing to reach the playoffs and squandering the division title to the Texans.

Now, oddsmakers aren't buying the Jags in 2024, moving them from +1700 to +2000 in the odds to win the AFC after they lost Calvin Ridley in free agency.

The Jaguars were a popular pick in the AFC last season, but the team clearly took a step back in Trevor Lawrence's third season. If TLaw can stay healthy, the Jags may be a team to buy low on in 20-2024.

Russell Wilson, Justin Fields Move Steelers' Odds to Win AFC

The Pittsburgh Steelers have completely revamped their quarterback room this offseason, adding Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, and oddsmakers think it'll improve the team in the 2024 campaign.

The Steelers have moved from +3600 to +3100 to win the AFC this season. These odds are still rather long, especially for a team that made the playoffs in the 2023 campaign.

Pittsburgh may be behind every other team in the AFC North, but Mike Tomlin's ability to avoid losing seasons (none in his career) always makes Pittsburgh a frisky team in the AFC.

Chargers' Odds to Win AFC Falling After Losing Key Weapons

The Los Angeles Chargers are going to look much different in the 2024 season after moving on from Austin Ekeler (signed with Washington), Keenan Allen (traded to Chicago) and Mike Williams (released).

Can Justin Herbert still get this team to the playoffs and potentially to a Super Bowl? Don't count on it right now.

Vegas has moved the Chargers from +1600 to +1700 to win the AFC this season.


Odds update periodically and are subject to change.