Experience vs. Recent Form: Which is More Important at The Masters?

"What have you done?" And, "what have you done lately?"

Both questions reflect the conundrum many bettors face when evaluating who to wager on, or enter into their pools for the upcoming 2022 Masters Tournament. Do you go with the player that's entering the first major of the season on a hot streak? Or instead, go with the golfer that knows the intricacies of Augusta National Golf Club instead?

While "both" is the easy answer, it may not always be the case, especially when trying to find value from sportsbooks like WynnBET. But is there a way to make a determination on whether experience or recent form is the more important figure to evaluate winning The Masters?

Here's what we found out.

How Much Does Recent Form Matter at The Masters?

The great folks over at DataGolf.com put together a study evaluating previous winners going all the way back to 1997. What they found out was the average Masters winner in that time had, "an estimated skill of +1.6 strokes-gained per round the week prior to winning."

Additionally, in the four months ahead of The Masters, the winner's level improved, on average, by 0.22 strokes per round.

In layman's terms, DataGolf's study reveals an average uptick in performance for every winner in the months leading up to The Masters over the last 25 years.

Based on their charting this year, they project Justin Thomas (14/1 at WynnBET) to line up with their metrics to win.

How Much Does Experience Matter at The Masters?

A few years earlier, the same folks at DataGolf also put together a study attempting to figure out whether there's any correlation between strokes-gained and experience playing at Augusta National.

In this study, they determined that the peak "Strokes-Gained per Round" over "Number of Previous Masters Experiences" was at its highest from Year 6 - Year 12.

Additionally, golf betting and fantasy analyst Ron Klos points out several notable splits ahead of The Masters, including how just one year of playing Augusta National can make all the difference in the world. Of the last 42 winners, all of them had played in at least one previous Masters.

Does Experience or Recent Form Matter More Than the Other?

With a 42-year sample of no rookies winning at Augusta National, it's safe to say that experience plays a prominent role and is certainly important. However, last year, Will Zalatoris in his first Masters nearly defeated Hideki Matsuyama who won for the first time in nine tries.

Once you get into two or more tries at Augusta, it appears that recent form actually may matter more than true experience. As DataGolf's study points out, winners from the last 25 years averaged out an improved performance by 0.22 strokes per round.

There's plenty of noteworthy candidates that fit into both categories; all of which you can read about in BetSided's full Masters coverage.

But if you hear "experience matters," muttered almost aimlessly throughout Masters week, know that while it's true, it's consistent improved form leading up to The Masters that's the more consistent "tradition unlike any other."

The BetSided squad built our perfect Masters pool and shared it with our viewers! How can you lose?

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