FedEx St. Jude Championship Picks, Predictions and Odds (Bet on Underrated Golfers at TPC Southwind)

Matt Fitzpatrick will be in the field for this week's FedEx St. Jude Championship.
Matt Fitzpatrick will be in the field for this week's FedEx St. Jude Championship. / Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

The PGA Tour heads to TPC Southwind for the FedEx St. Jude Championship, which will serve as the opening round of the FedEx Cup Playoffs.

The top 125 golfers in the FedEx Cup standings will compete this week, with the top 70 moving on to the BMW Championship, the second leg of the playoffs, next week.

If you want to know who I think will win the FedEx Cup, check out my FedEx Cup Power Rankings here.

But for now, let's take a look at the top 10 odds via WynnBET Sportsbook to win this week, as well as my three best bets to take home the hardware.

Odds to Win the FedEx St. Jude Championship

  • Rory McIlroy +1100
  • Cameron Smith +1400
  • Scottie Scheffler +1400
  • Jon Rahm +1600
  • Justin Thomas +1800
  • Patrick Cantlay +1800
  • Xander Schauffele +1800
  • Jordan Spieth +2000
  • Tony Finau +2000
  • Matt Fitzpatrick +2500

How to Handicap the FedEx St. Jude Championship

TPC Southwind is a true ball strikers course. Approach play is the one area that is more important than every other aspect of the game by a wide margin this week.

Sure, distance off the tee might help a bit, but it's not necessary. Accuracy is important, but missing a couple of fairways won't kill you. Obviously you need strong putting to win a tournament like this, but unless you're sticking the ball close to the hole, you have no hope to begin with.

There are also very few short approaches, but also very few long approaches. The large majority of them will end up being between 125-200 yards. 23% of the approaches here will be between 150-175 yards, the highest average amongst all distances.

5 Key Stats for the FedEx St. Jude Championship

  • Ball Striking
  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Approach Proximity from 150-175 yards
  • Strokes gained: around-the-greens
  • Strokes gained: putting

Best Bets to Win the FedEx St. Jude Championship

Matt Fitzpatrick +2500

All he did was win the U.S. Open, but for some reason, Matt Fitzpatrick still isn't getting the respect he deserves from the oddsmakers. He enters the event second in total strokes gained on Tour this season, behind only Rory McIlroy.

If there's any weakness he has, it's length off the tee where he only ranks 87th in driving distance. luckily, that won't hurt him much at TPC Southwind. If you need further evidence of that, he finished fourth here in 2019 and sixth in 2020. He's been playing the best golf of his career, now returns to a course he's already had success at.

Will Zalatoris +3000

I'm calling my shot, it's time for Will Zalatoris to get his first win of his PGA Tour career.

Zalatoris parted ways with his caddies halfway through the Wyndham Championship. Joel Stock will serve as his caddie for the remainder of the playoffs, and we've seen caddie changes make immediate impacts on golfers in the past.

He's the best ball striker on Tour, and he's too hard to pass up at 30/1 this week. Especially since we saw him finish T8 at this course last year.

Sungjae Im +3500

Sungjae Im is coming into the event having just finished T2 in two-straight events. He wasn't at fault for not winning either event, as both times there was one golfer who just went out on Sunday and shot amazing rounds that would have been near impossible to match.

Im's iron's have been dialed in as of late, and seemed to figure out whatever issues he was having with the putter at the Open Championship.

I have full confidence that Im will at least be in contention on Sunday.

You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.