FIU vs. New Mexico State Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for College Football Week 6
By Reed Wallach
Florida International and New Mexico State each restart play after a bye in Week 5.
After making a bowl last season, New Mexico State has struggled in 2023 but will look to get going in conference play against an improved Florida International team. This is a battle of contrasting styles as FIU bolsters an elite defense for CUSA standards while the Aggies have been a far better offensive team.
How should we handicap this matchup? Let me break it down for you:
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FIU vs. New Mexico State Odds, Spread and Total
New Mexico State vs. FIU Betting Trends
- FIU is 3-1 against the spread (ATS) this season as an underdog
- New Mexico State is 3-2 ATS this season
- FIU has gone UNDER in four of five games
- New Mexico State has gone OVER in both games as a favorite
FIU vs. New Mexico State How to Watch
- Date: Wednesday, October 4
- Game Time: 9:00 PM EST
- Venue: Aggie Memorial Stadium
- How to Watch (TV): CBS Sports Network
- FIU Record: 3-2
- New Mexico State Record: 2-3
FIU vs. New Mexico State Key Players to Watch
FIU
Shomari Lawrence: Lawrence has emerged as the most dangerous threat on the Panthers offense, averaging more than six yards per carry this season. The FIU offense is struggling to sustain drives, but Lawrence has been the bright spot as the team has settled on freshman quarterback Keyone Jenkins.
New Mexico State
Diego Pavia: Pavia is the team's leading passer and rusher this season as the team has been explosive on offense, ranking 14th in EPA/Play this season. Pavia will face a stout FIU defense, but in his second full season under center, has shown a considerable leap in production.
FIU vs. New Mexico State Prediction and Pick
I'm looking to the under in this one.
While New Mexico State has been efficient on offense, the team is outside the top 100 in plays per minute, and will face a stout defense in FIU, who has done a great job of limiting explosive plays this season, ranking 36th in the country in explosive play rate.
I don't trust New Mexico State to string together long sustaining drives against this Panthers defense that is top half of the country in terms of success rate. The Aggies have been hunting for chunk yardage, but the team isn't going to be able to find deep shots against this FIU defense that is top 50 in coverage grades, per Pro Football Focus.
Meanwhile, FIU's offense has inflated its metrics against North Texas, who may have the worst defense in the country. While New Mexico State is far from an even decent unit, I'm not sure that there's going to be a ton of scoring against Jerry Kill's defense that has done a strong job against the run -- top 50 in both line yards and explosive rush defense.
I believe this game trends towards an under matchup on Wednesday night.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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