Genesis Invitational Matchup Bets: Fade Golfers Who Struggle Around the Greens
After an electric WM Phoenix Open, the PGA Tour is set to move on to the Genesis Invitational at the Riviera Country Club.
You can find my full betting preview and outright picks here, and I've also written about a few long shot bets you should be eye'ing here. Finally, if you're into DFS, check out FanSided's Cody Williams' article on his best picks for DFS lineups. I dabbled in daily fantasy myself last week, and it did not go well. Cody is much more fit to give you advise in that category.
In this article, we're going to focus on tournament-long matchup bets. For these to cash, the golfer your bet on has to finish higher up on the leaderboard than the player he's matched up against. Note that these bets are for the entire tournament, not just one round.
All odds listed are via WynnBET Sportsbook.
Genesis Invitational Matchup Bets
- Dustin Johnson -150 vs. Collin Morikawa
- Patrick Reed +100 vs. Corey Conners
- Will Zalatoris -120 vs. Viktor Hovland
Dustin Johnson -150 vs. Collin Morikawa
Dustin Johnson is my top pick to win this week, so it's no surprise I'm on him in a matchup against Morikawa. Quite simply, nobody has played as well at Riviera as DJ has in his career.
Dustin Johnson ranks at Riviera since 2009 (min. 12 rounds played)
— Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) February 14, 2022
SG Total - 1st
SG Tee to Green - 1st
Scoring average - 1st
Birdie average - 1st
Rounds in 60s - 1st
Rounds of 67 or lower - 1st
When it comes to Morikawa, the short game is of utmost important at Riviera, so my matchup strategy is simple: fade players who rank low in strokes gained: around the green. That is exactly the part of his game that is his biggest weakness. He ranks 173rd in strokes gained: around the green on Tour, which will hurt him this week.
Patrick Reed +100 vs. Corey Conners
Once again, Riviera presents the toughest challenge around the greens on the PGA Tour's schedule.
With some of the toughest greens to hit in regulation on the PGA Tour, short game performance is more important at Riviera than normal.
— Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) February 14, 2022
Since 2010, winners at Riviera average nearly twice as many SG around the green per round than the average PGA Tour winner in that span.
Not many people are as familiar with Corey Conners than I am, as I'm seemingly obsessed with betting on my fellow Canadian. I know that the weakest part of his game is his chipping around the greens, which is proved by his 140th ranking in that stat, so fading him this week is a no-brainer.
I'll begrudgingly take Patrick Reed in that matchup at +100.
Will Zalatoris -120 vs. Viktor Hovland
Do I really need to say it again? Fade. Bad. Chippers.
Viktor Hovland may be a popular name this week, but he shouldn't be. He ranks 219th in the Tour in strokes gained: around-the-green. Riviera is a terrible fit for his game, and I'll be staying far away from him. Meanwhile, Zalatoris may struggle with his putting, but he's 1st on Tour in strokes gained: approach and 59th in strokes gained: around-the-green. He'll perform well this week.