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Giants vs. Diamondbacks Prediction and Odds for Tuesday, July 26 (Rodón Bounces Back)

By Joe Summers

Carlos Rodon allowed more than two runs just four times in his first 19 starts
Carlos Rodon allowed more than two runs just four times in his first 19 starts / Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports
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The Arizona Diamondbacks pulled the wool over my eyes yesterday.

I wrote up a Giants pick because Tyler Gilbert and his horrific 6.46 expected ERA was expected to start. Naturally, Arizona flipped the script and started Merrill Kelly instead. Kelly shut San Francisco out, and I was stuck with a loss.

Cruel world.

However, Gilbert is once against expected to start today. I'll be going right back to the well as a result. Gilbert's underlying metrics are horrible, and we've got the superb Carlos Rodón starting opposite him.

Rodón got smacked around by the L.A. Dodgers in his last start, but they're smacking everyone around so I can forgive that. Prior to that debacle, Rodón had allowed one or fewer runs in six of seven outings.

I expect a quality performance from him tonight. That being said, so do oddsmakers. Let's check out those odds, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook:

Giants vs Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Giants -1.5 (-115)
  • Diamondbacks +1.5 (-105)

Moneyline:

  • Giants: -180
  • Diamondbacks: +165

Total:

  • 8.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Giants vs Diamondbacks Prediction and Pick

Fingers crossed Arizona actually follows through with its plan and starts Gilbert. I don't like being made a fool. In any case, Rodón is so much better than Gilbert that it almost feels like they're playing different sports.

His last start notwithstanding, Rodón has been one of the truly elite pitchers in MLB this season. He's allowed two runs or fewer in 15 of his 19 starts while maintaining a 2.93 expected ERA.

Gilbert, on the other hand, has a 6.76 expected ERA and the Diamondbacks are 1-5 in his last six outings. His MLB Statcast Pitching Profile illustrates just how bad he's been:

The Giants have the fourth-best OPS against left-handed pitchers over the last three weeks and should have no problem creating damage against such a poor starter. I must admit though, San Francisco's bullpen terrifies me.

As a result, I'll focus on the first five innings run line to maximize the advantage Rodón has over Gilbert. WynnBET has the Giants -0.5 in the first five innings at -125 odds, and that's where my dollars are going today.

Please don't pull any more tricks, Arizona. My bank account does not appreciate it.

Pick: Giants First Five Innings -0.5 (-125)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

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