Guardians vs. Dodgers Prediction and Odds for Saturday, June 18 (Guardians Disrespected Again?)

My newly beloved 33-27 Cleveland Guardians pulled off a huge upset over the 39-24 Los Angeles Dodgers last night and hope to take control of the series tonight at 7:15 PM EST.

The Guardians have won 14 of 17 and start Cal Quantrill today, who has thrown a quality start in eight of his last nine outings, including in five straight. On the year, he's 4-3 with a 3.38 ERA.

Los Angeles counters with Julio Urias coming off six strong innings in a loss to the Giants in which he only allowed two runs and struck out 10 batters. The Dodgers are just 1-6 in his last seven starts, including three straight home losses, as their lineup hasn't given Urias enough run support to be competitive.

Can they bounce back and slow Cleveland down? Or will Quantrill give Los Angeles a fifth straight loss behind Urias?

Let's check out the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook to find the value in this Guardians vs Dodgers matchup:

Guardians vs Dodgers Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

• Guardians +1.5 (+100)
• Dodgers -1.5 (-120)

Moneyline:

• Guardians: +215
• Dodgers: -240

Total:

• 8.0 (Over -115/Under -105)

Guardians vs Dodgers Prediction and Pick

The Cleveland Guardians' "Prove It" stretch got off to a lovely start with a +237 upset win over these Dodgers. They're the hottest team in the AL and sit just one game behind Minnesota for the AL Central division lead. This series kicks off a brutal stretch in their schedule, so maintaining their momentum is crucial in these early games.

I didn't intend to pick the Guardians again today, but if these are the odds then I have no choice. This line is just too high for a Dodgers' club that's averaging 1.83 runs per game in their previous six. They're 24th in OPS against right-handed pitchers over the last three weeks and Cal Quantrill has been consistently good for Cleveland.

Quantrill has gone at least six innings in nine straight outings and has a quality start in five straight. The Guardians have won three straight behind him and he has a 2.38 ERA in June.

On the other end, Julio Urias' inconsistency combined with a lack of run support from the Dodgers' lineup leaves Los Angeles vulnerable. They're 1-6 in his last seven starts, getting outscored 27-15 in the process. Urias gave up five home runs in his last three outings and has the highest opponent expected slugging percentage of his career. With a 4.57 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) that's actually higher than Quantrill's (4.23), I'm not so sure the Dodgers actually have that big of a pitching advantage.

What I am sure of, though, is that Cleveland has significant advantages defensively and in the bullpen. That may not matter to oddsmakers, but it should to us bettors. Cleveland has covered the run line in five of their last six as underdogs while Los Angeles is 6-10 outright in their last 16 as a favorite. Once again, the value lies with the Guardians.

Pick: Guardians (+215)

If you're feeling rambunctious, I also favor a half-unit parlay of the Guardians moneyline and under 8.0 (-105) at +515. That's $128.74 on a $25 bet for two outcomes that I think are far likelier than their odds suggest.

Pick: Half-Unit on Guardians moneyline / Under 8.0 (-105) parlay (+515)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.