Guardians vs. Yankees Prediction and Odds for ALDS Game 5 (Back New York as Home Favorite)

New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge.
New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge. / Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

What’s better than a winner-take-all playoff game?

That’s what we get treated to on Tuesday night, after rain spoiled things on Monday night in the Bronx. The Cleveland Guardians and New York Yankees will finally play to advance to the ALCS against the Houston Astros. 

New York kept its postseason run alive with a 4-2 victory in Game 4 in Cleveland, and now the Yankees are back home with a chance to close the series out.

Originally, this was supposed to be a pitching matchup between Jameson Taillon and Aaron Civale, but the Yankees will instead go with Nestor Cortes on short rest following the rain out. The Guardians have yet to announce a starter, but it looks like they'll go with Civale over using ace Shane Bieber on three days rest.

Both teams have all hands on deck in the bullpen in this game. The Guardians, who have one of the best bullpens in MLB, will likely use Civale as an opener in this matchup, if he does remain the starter.

Who takes Game 5 of the ALDS? Let’s jump into the odds and a pick for this matchup: 

Guardians vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line and Total

Guardians vs. Yankees Prediction and Pick

The Yankees paid Gerrit Cole a ton of money to be their ace, and man did he deliver in this series, throwing 13.1 innings and allowing just three runs in both of New York’s wins. 

Cole’s performance in Game 4 has to have energized this Yankees squad, and New York has jumped on the Guardians early in two of the last three games. If Civale is the mound, I think there is value on New York getting off to a hot start. Civale has a 5.40 ERA in the first inning of games this season.

Cortes wasn't great in Game 2, laboring through five innings and allowing two runs, but the Guardians were 28th in baseball in OPS against left-handed pitching in the regular season. If Cortes can give the Yankees three to four strong innings, it should help them limit the number of bullpen arms they have to use.

The bullpen is obviously an issue for New York, but the Yankees have a better offense and more firepower to get this done at home. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.