Guide to Betting College Basketball Post NFL Super Bowl
By Reed Wallach
Hello, football fan.
You've been so locked in on the NFL postseason and the Super Bowl just ended and there's an emptiness inside of you, you're looking for the next sport to latch onto.
Welcome, friend, to college basketball, which has actually been going on since November, but now comes to the forefront of the sports landscape as we are about a month from the NCAA Tournament and conference play is in full swing.
There's a ton of content here at BetSided for you, including my daily best bets column and weekly power rankings, as well as a slew of picks in our college basketball picks hub, but here is a few notes to help get you settled in and up to speed on the college basketball season.
Gonzaga is Really Good Again, But There Are Several Teams Contending
I know, you're probably thinking that there's no way Gonzaga (+500 at WynnBET Sportsbook to win the National Championship) can be that good again after they got blown out in the National Championship last season, but actually they are just as good and possibly better.
Freshman big man Chet Holmgren has made the Zags defense that much stronger and the team has the third best adjusted efficiency margin metric per KenPom in the history of the database (behind last season's team and 2015 Kentucky).
While there is a wide margin separating the Bulldogs, there are several fantastic teams that are Final Four threats and can easily find themselves cutting down the nets. Let's start in the SEC, which is the best conference this season for more money.
Auburn (+800) is the team to watch here, paced by an electric backcourt with K.D. Johnson and Wendell Green as well as this summer's top three pick in the NBA Draft Jabari Smith. Smith is a 6'10" stretch four that has a fantastic jumper and capable of defending on the perimeter. Not to mention, they have 7'1" big man Walker Kessler who has the the best block rate in the country.
Auburn is a force to be reckoned with, but so is Kentucky (+1000), who has the National Player of the Year betting favorite Oscar Tshiebwe (+300), who leads the country in defensive rebounding rate and is third in offensive rebounding rate.
The team has a stud guard in TyTy Washington and several devastating wings like Davidson transfer Kellan Grady. The Wildcats had a slow start to the season on a national scale, but they are now 10-2 in SEC play and are the healthiest they've been all season. The team is top 12 on both sides of the ball per KenPom and has a great blend of veterans, transfers and star freshman. I'm very bullish on Coach Cal's team ahead of the Tournament.
One other team to note: Arizona (+1000), who is back under first year head coach Tommy Lloyd, sitting at 22-2 on the year. The team is the only one that is top 10 on both sides of the ball besides Gonzaga and probably matches up best with the Bulldogs based on their size and speed in which they play. The Wildcats have one of the best interior defenses and length to matchup with Drew Timme and Holmgren while playing at a top 10 tempo.
Big Ten and Big 12 Full of Quality Teams
I mentioned the SEC is the best conference in the country this season in my opinion and the Big Ten and Big 12 are a considerable step behind but still really good!
We'll start with Purdue (+800), who has the No. 1 offense in the country around future lottery pick Jaden Ivey, 7'4" center Zach Edey and the best passing big man in the country in Trevion Williams.
However, the team is likely going to be held back by their 116th ranked defense. If the offense is off, they are at risk of losing to any team in the country, evident by a blowout loss at Michigan last Thursday and a near loss to a sub-.500 Maryland team at home on Super Bowl Sunday. The team has a small margin of error given their porous defense, so I would keep a critical eye on them despite their lofty ranking and seeding come Tournament time.
Illinois (+2000) profiles as a more balanced team with big man Kofi Cockburn and a ton of perimeter shooting like Utah transfer Alfonso Plummer and Trent Frazier, and I'll likely be more bullish on them come March than the Boilermakers.
After that there's a whole mess of quality teams in the mix in that conference like Ohio State (+5000), Michigan State (+3000), Wisconsin (+5000) and Iowa (+10000). The conference is truly such a grind on a nightly basis that these teams tend to play up and down to their competition on a nightly basis with a crowded middle, but Illinois and Purdue stick out as better teams as of this writing.
Meanwhile, in the Big 12 it's a three headed monster at the top: Kansas (+1500), Texas Tech (+2000), Baylor (+1200), but all teams have issues.
Kansas has a stud wing in Ochai Agbaji, but the Jayhawks' defense is weaker than usual and they are without lead guard Remy Martin for the time being which is holding down their turnover numbers.
Texas Tech is actually incredibly capable and arguably the most dangerous to make a run from this conference, behind the third best defense in the country, but the offense still leaves some to be desired. The team is 55th in offensive efficiency, but ShotQuality actually rates them inside the top 15 in their adjusted metric, hinting the offense is actually operating quite well and could be ripe for some positive regression.
Texas Tech lost at Kansas in double overtime and beat Baylor in Waco, Texas this season. The Red Raiders are legit.
Meanwhile, the defending champs Baylor have been ravaged by injuries this season, most recently Jonathan Tchamwa over the weekend to a knee injury for the year. We will see if the Bears, who have the metrics of a title contender, can get healthy ahead of the Tournament.
Mountain West is All Sorts of Fun
The best conference on a nightly basis is actually the Mountain West. The team is actually contending for five bids in the Tournament this season, the first time since 2013.
Wyoming, Boise State (+15000) and Colorado State (+7500) appear to be firmly in the Tournament field at this point, while San Diego State (+15000) appears on track as well. After that, Utah State and Fresno State may need to win the MWC Tournament to lock up a bid.
However, the conference is putting out intense games every night that are going down to the wire. Boise State started the conference as the hot team, paced by the 11th best defense in the country per KenPom, but has dropped two tight games to the two best offenses in the league in Wyoming and Colorado State over the past few weeks.
Wyoming is in first in the conference right now, led by the dynamic duo of Hunter Maldonaldo and Graham Ike that lead the 22nd best offense in the country, but Colorado State is right there with David Roddy and a deep roster around talented head coach Niko Medved.
Make sure you are checking out this conference on the likes of CBS Sports Network and Fox Sports 1 late during the week because you will see at least one of these teams in the Sweet 16.
All of Reed's college basketball plays can be tracked here, his best bets column for college basketball is 60-52-3 for +5.1 units.