The Mountain West has become my favorite college basketball conference to watch and bet on this season, and tonight's game between Wyoming and San Diego State will be a big one.
Ben Heisler already broke down the odds for the game as well as his pick in his betting preview, but we're on opposite sides for this one, so I'm here to state my case.
San Diego State vs. Wyoming Prediction and Pick
Wyoming has treated me well this season, and I have no reason to jump off their train now.
Sure, San Diego State is the top defensive team in the country right now, there's no denying that, but the Cowboys are solid defensively as well. I think the area that will be the difference maker in tonight's showdown is shooting.
The Aztecs struggle in the shooting department, ranking 226th in the country in effective field goal percentage. They'll need to be hot tonight if they plan on keeping pace with the Cowboys, who rank 35th in that stat.
Those numbers become even more stark when you look at home/away splits.
San Diego State Has Struggled on the Road this Season
San Diego State's poor shooting numbers get even worse on the road. It's admittedly normal for a team to not shoot as well when playing away from their home court, but it's especially the case when it comes to the Aztecs. Their effective field goal percentage drops 6.1% when playing on the road (45.4%) compared to at home (51.5%). That puts them amongst the worst road shooting teams in the country.
This becomes even more evident when looking at their average scoring margin. They're winning games by an average margin of +14.7 points at home, but their scoring margin dips into the negative at -0.4 when playing at their opponents court. Not good.
Wyoming Excels at Home
Of everything I just said, the exact opposite is true for Wyoming. The Cowboys are 35th in effective field goal percentage, but they are the 13th best shooting team in the country when playing at home. Their effective field goal percentage jumps 7.2% from 50.5% on the road to an impressive 57.7% at home.
Much like SDSU, the Cowboys average scoring margin also sees a significant jump. They're winning games by an average of 14.8 points at home compared to 2.8 points on the road.
I'll take a shot on the Cowboys as +110 moneyline underdogs on the road tonight.
Check out Iain's detailed 2022 betting record here.