Home Run Derby Head-to-Head Matchups (Best Bets to Advance Past Round 1)

I've got good news and bad news. The bad news is there's no MLB games to bet on as we've entered the All-Star Break. The good news is there's still plenty of dollars to be made on tonight's main event: The Home Run Derby!

Pete Alonso (+200) is the favorite at WynnBET Sportsbook to win the crown for a third time, though a strong field including Kyle Schwarber (+330), Juan Soto (+600), and even Albert Pujols (+2200) is anxious to dethrone MLB's RBI leader.

With the Derby kicking off at 8:00 PM EST tonight, it's time to get our favorite bets locked in. Let's take a look at each Round 1 matchup and predict the winner of each, using odds from WynnBET:

Home Run Derby Head-to-Head Matchups

Julio Rodriguez vs Corey Seager

• Rodriguez: -150

• Seager: +127

Seager is likely to have the crowd behind him and will be a trendy pick to win the Home Run Derby. The former Dodger has 22 home runs and could certainly make a run. But Julio Rodriguez is becoming undeniable and possesses the rare blend of speed and power needed to win this event.

Rodriguez is destroying his practice rounds and with the good vibes around the Mariners (winners of 14 straight), this feels like a potential coronation of the superstar rookie. I love the value on Rodriguez (+850) to win the Derby and think he plays spoiler against the crowd-favorite Seager in Round 1.

Pick: Rodriguez (-150)

Kyle Schwarber vs Albert Pujols

• Schwarber: -350

• Pujols: +270

If you're looking for a Saint Peter's over Kentucky-type of Round 1 upset, Pujols is your guy. My colleague, Josh Yourrish, has his conspiracy-theory hat on and believes MLB will find a way to give Pujols the victory. So if you're looking for a huge cash early on, rock with Pujols.

But Schwarber leads the field in dingers, made the Derby Finals back in 2018, and looks like he should be the favorite tonight.

I worry about both of these guy's stamina as we get to the later rounds, but each should put on a show in Round 1. I'll roll with Schwarber as he's got a bit more juice in the bat and will be hungry after narrowly losing a few years back.

Take off the tin hat Josh, Schwarber is winning Round 1.

Pick: Schwarber (-350)

Pete Alonso vs Ronald Acuna Jr

• Alonso: -185

• Acuna Jr: +145

Alonso has two wins in this event and somehow has made more money from the Derby than his MLB salary. You know what I call that? Complacency. You know who isn't complacent? This guy:

After losing to Alonso in Round 2 back in 2019, I think Acuna Jr is anxious for revenge. The Polar Bear will be tough to take down, but if we're looking for an upset to supercharge our bracket, this is where I'm going.

Pick: Acuna Jr (+145)

Juan Soto vs Jose Ramirez

• Soto: -180

• Ramirez: +145

I want *so badly* to pick Ramirez, whose bubbly personality and effortlessly bombastic swings make him perhaps my favorite position player in the majors. But Soto is quite possibly the best hitter on the planet and is my pick to win the event.

He looks like he's playing MLB The Show on Rookie mode and should be prepped to steal the show in the midst of contract negotiations. With 20 home runs on the year, Soto has been trapped playing for a miserable club and will relish the opportunity to show out in front of the world.

I'm excited for the show Ramirez will put on, but there's no player I'm more excited to watch in Round 1 than Soto. He's a superhuman. Anything under -200 is a value.

Pick: Soto (-180)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.