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Houston Open Prediction, Odds and Betting Preview

By Iain MacMillan

Carlos Ortiz is the defending champion of the Houston Open.
Carlos Ortiz is the defending champion of the Houston Open. / Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports
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The PGA Tour has wrapped up its international swing of the season with Viktor Hovland winning in Mexico for the second straight year. It returns to the United States for this week’s Houston Open.

Carlos Ortiz will enter the event as the defending champion, and it will be the second straight season that the event will be held at Memorial Park Municipal Golf Course, after taking place at Golf Club of Houston from 2003-2019.

Here are the top 15 odds to win the event, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

Odds to Win the Houston Open

  • Sam Burns +1600
  • Scottie Scheffler +1800
  • Sungjae Im +2000
  • Cameron Smith +2200
  • Matthew Wolff +2500
  • Tony Finau +2500
  • Brooks Koepka +2800
  • Joaquin Niemann +2800
  • Tyrrell Hatton +2800
  • Talor Gooch +2800
  • Adam Scott +3300
  • Aaron Wise +3300
  • Carlos Ortiz +3300
  • Patrick Reed +3500
  • Marc Leishman +3500

How to Handicap Memorial Park Municipal Golf Course

With only one year of statistics at this course to look at heading into this week, it can be a tricky event to handicap. The main thing to take away from last year’s edition of the tournament, is that fairways and greens were hit at a lower rate, and each green was surrounded by tight lies.

Brooks Koepka helped redesign the course a few years back, and he wanted to make it more difficult for professionals. Tough lies in the rough, and a firm surface around the greens were his two biggest contributions.

Distance off the tee also seemed to be important. No golfer in the top 10 of last year’s event averaged fewer than 297 yards per drive.

Key Stats for the Houston Open

  • Strokes gained: off-the-tee
  • Driving distance
  • Approaches from 200-225 yards
  • Strokes gained: around the green
  • Strokes gained: putting

Houston Open Predictions and Picks

Cameron Smith +2200

If you’re looking for someone who has a touch of class around the greens and is lights out with his putter, look no further than Cameron Smith at +2200.

While I haven’t fully forgiven him for losing to Tony Finau in a playoff at last season’s Northern Trust, it’s time for me to look past that and bet on him again this week. He’s only competed once in the new season, but last year he ranked 25th in strokes gained: around the green and 10th in strokes gained: putting.

The course should fit his style of golf to perfection.

Tony Finau +2500

Speaking of Tony Finau, I’m shocked that he’s available at 25/1 to win this weekend’s event. He has the monkey off of back of not being able to win a tournament, and he finished 24th here last season so he has experience at this course.

He also ranked 20th in strokes gained: around the green last season, which will prove to be invaluable at this track.

Jhonattan Vegas +9000

Anytime the PGA Tour plays at a course where distance is important, one of my favorite sneaky longshot plays is Jhonattan Vegas. He ranks 22nd in strokes gained: off-the-tee this season and 10th in driving distance. He also ranks a respectable T69th in approaches from 200-225 yards and 72nd in strokes gained: around the green.

With a less than stellar field set for this week’s event, it could be time for him to capture his fourth career victory on the PGA Tour.

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