How Do First Time Conference Championship Quarterbacks Perform?

We all know that the NFL is a quarterback driven league. Most Super Bowl Champions are carried by their elite signal caller that makes plays over the course of the season that define their quest for a Lombardi Trophy.

But do they win in their first postseason run? Or does it take time? Let's breakdown the numbers.

Burrow in a Historically Strong Spot to Cover, but Win?

Take for example two quarterbacks of the remaining four ahead of Championship Weekend: Patrick Mahomes and Jimmy Garoppolo.

Mahomes' first AFC Championship featured an overtime loss at home to the New England Patriots, which they failed to cover the three-point spread and advance to the Super Bowl. Meanwhile, a year later, Jimmy G and the Niners throttled the Green Bay Packers as 8-point chalk, 37-20, an easy cover in his first Championship Weekend appearance.

Those two quarterbacks will face off against first timers of different variety. Let's start with Joe Burrow, who enters as QB of the Cincinnati Bengals in his second season under center for the AFC North Champions. The 2020 No. 1 pick is in an iffy spot against Mahomes.

Historically, quarterbacks are 16-18 against the spread (ATS) in their first Conference Championship game.

The Bengals aren't being given much credit in the market against the back-to-back AFC Champions Chiefs, catching 7.5 points at WynnBET Sportsbook, but first time quarterbacks of a touchdown or greater are 5-2 ATS in the Conference Championship, including two outright victories.

Stafford In Rare Air

However, the same can be said for the other debutant to Championship weekend, Matthew Stafford. Stafford will be the seventh QB since 2000 to make their first Conference Championship since 2000, and the results haven't been great.

Those quarterbacks have gone 2-4 ATS, much less common than Burrow's career arc. So, typically teams that have acquired a quarterback or made a run at the later stages of his career have come up short in an effort to clinch a Super Bowl berth. The Rams are -3.5 at home against the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship.

These are some of the many trends to keep in mind when assessing the pair of Conference Championship games on Sunday.