How to Bet the Final Round of the British Open (Will Anyone Catch Brian Harman?)

July 20, 2023; Hoylake, England, GBR; Brian Harman plays his shot from the fourth tee during the
July 20, 2023; Hoylake, England, GBR; Brian Harman plays his shot from the fourth tee during the / Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Even those of us who bet on Brian Harman before the tournament started couldn't have envisioned him leading the Open Championship by five strokes heading into the final round.

Yet here we are. The lefty 36-year old who hasn't won on Tour since 2017 has a stranglehold on the tournament heading into Sunday. It's the largest lead at the Open Championship since Tiger Woods in 2000.

So, how should we handle the final round as bettors? Let's dive into.

British Open Live Odds

British Open Live Bets

Brian Harman -200

If you didn't tail me pre-tournament and you don't have a Brian Harman ticket in your hand, I would actually recommending placing some live action on him at -200. I know it's not the most enticing bet in the world, but value is value and Harman should be favored by more than just -200.

-200 is an implied probability of 66.67%. Based on's projection, Harmans' actual probability of winning is 71.6%, which translates to -252 odds.

With that being said, keep in mind that a five stroke lead after 54 holes has been blown twice in Open Championship history.

Still, I think there's plenty of value at -200 odds.

Jon Rahm +750

Jon Rahm is the obvious choice to catch Harman at +750 odds.

He shot the round of the tournament on Saturday with an 8-under score. He now sits six strokes back of Harman and if his putter can stay as hot on Sunday, he could make a run at it. He gained 3.62 strokes with his putter on the third round, the best in the field.

Rahm has come from behind on Sunday at a major before, coming back from three strokes down on Sunday at the 2021 US Open. He's done it before and certainly has the firepower to do it again.

Sepp Straka +5500

If you want a bit of a longshot heading into the final round, allow me to suggest Sepp Straka.

Of all the golfers who are in the conversation heading into the final round, Straka has putt on the second best ball striking performance, gaining 1.70 strokes per round with his approach game. The only golfer who is better in that area is Cameron Young at 2.73, but the difference with Straka is that he's short game has been strong as well, gaining 1.27 strokes per round on the greens.

If anyone's going to post a score to challenge Harman, it's going to have to be someone who is giving themselves plenty of birdie looks and that's what Straka has been doing.

He's seven strokes back from Harman so he'll likely need Harman to collapse a bit, which is certainly possible.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change