Betsided

How to Bet Joe Burrow's Passing Prop in the Divisional Round

By Reed Wallach

Jan 15, 2022; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) during the first quarter
Jan 15, 2022; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) during the first quarter / Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports
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Joe Burrow was electric in his first playoff game, a 26-19 win over the Las Vegas Raiders. Burrow 24 of 34 passes for 244 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

He now heads to Nashville to take on the No. 1 seed Tennessee Titans in the AFC Divisional Round. You can check out our game preview for this Saturday afternoon matchup here, but let's assess Burrow's prop market at WynnBET Sportsbook.

Joe Burrow Props vs. Titans

  • Passing Touchdowns: 1.5 (Over -190/Under +145)
  • Pass Attempts: 36.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
  • Passing Yards: 280.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
  • Rushing Yards: 8.5 (Over -115/Under -115)

Game Script Will Call for Passes

My favorite way to attack Burrow's props on Saturday is to go over on his pass attempts. Outside of kneels from Burrow, the Bengals ran it on 23 plays and passed on 34.

Cincinnati has become one of the most pass-happy teams in the league this season, throwing it on 58% of the time and the Titans allow one of the lowest average depth of target in the league, so I don't expect big plays from the Bengals offense. Burrow may need to check down often in this matchup, so I'm not interested in his passing yards prop but more the volume.

Cincy enters this game as underdogs so if the game script follows suit against a well oiled machine that is the Titans under Mike Vrabel off of a bye, than the team may be playing catch up early. Joe Mixon hobbled off in the Wild Card game against the Raiders and is likely still battling a nagging injury that has hobbled him for much of the second half of the season.

The Bengals are a pass first team and have been all season and I expect this game to fall on Burrow's shoulders, particularly considering I envision them playing from behind. With that in mind, I would also steer clear of a pricey over 1.5 on touchdown passes as those are a hit-or-miss prop that depend on if the team gets in close or not.

Lastly, I also see value on the Burrow over rushing yards at 8.5 yards. While he only had two kneel downs against the Raiders, in the three games prior he went over this number and in two of those he had five rushes.

In the playoffs, quarterbacks minimize their mistakes and are more willing to keep the rock and scramble for a few yards.

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