Iowa vs. Michigan Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for Big Ten Championship

College football betting preview, prediction and best bets for Michigan vs. Iowa in the Big Ten Championship.

Nov 25, 2023; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) throws
Nov 25, 2023; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) throws / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA
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Michigan's quest for a third straight Big Ten title concludes on Saturday as overwhelming favorites against Iowa.

The Hawkeyes have scratched its way to 10 wins behind an elite defense, but what will happen on a neutral field when it faces the best offense it has seen all season in Michigan, who is fresh off of a 30-point effort against rival Ohio State.

Keep reading for all the key betting trends, impact players and our best bet on the point spread for the Big Ten Championship.

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Iowa vs. Michigan Odds, Spread and Total

Michigan vs. Iowa Betting Trends

  • Michigan is 6-5-1 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • Iowa is 6-5-1 ATS this season
  • Iowa is 2-1 ATS as an underdog this season
  • Iowa has gone UNDER in 10 of 12 games this season
  • Michigan has gone OVER in seven of 12 games this season
  • Iowa has gone under in all three games as an underdog

Iowa vs. Michigan How to Watch

  • Date: Saturday, Dec. 2
  • Game Time: 8:00 PM EST
  • Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
  • How to Watch (TV): FOX
  • Iowa Record: 10-2
  • Michigan Record: 12-0

Iowa vs. Michigan Key Players to Watch

Iowa

Sebastian Castro: With the Hawkeyes down star cornerback Cooper DeJean, more pressure has fallen on Castro, who has three interceptions (one for a touchdown) and a forced fumble this season. Iowa's offense is as poor as they come, so the defense will need to make a play on the efficient J.J. McCarthy. It'll like need to come from the senior cornerback, who has proven to have an eye for the ball.

Michigan

J.J. McCarthy: McCarthy engineered a successful game plan for the Wolverines that ended with the team beating rival Ohio State for the third straight season. He completed 16-of-20 passes for 148 yards, which may not be eye-popping numbers but what was needed in a defensive-minded affair. He posed an EPA/Dropback of 0.31 (78th percentile when compared to games last season, per gameonpaper.com) and averaged 8.27 yards per dropback (81st percentile)

Iowa vs. Michigan Prediction and Pick

As noted in our ATS picks for every conference title game, I'm bullish on Michigan's chances of running the score up on a hapless Iowa offense:

Will Iowa score in this one? I'm not so sure with the team down its best defender in Cooper DeJean and an offense that is inept in all facets. The Hawkeyes check in last in success rate and second to last in EPA/Play. They are set to face a top five defense in terms of EPA/Play in the nation in the Wolverines.

Iowa has benefitted from playing poor offenses in the Big Ten West for much of this season, but when it played a plus offense in Penn State it got blasted 31-0, and I see Michigan eager to run this one up in a title game atmosphere with head coach Jim Harbaugh back on the sidelines.

Michigan is top 10 in both EPA/Play and success rate and are top 10 in yards per pass attempt. The team has leaned on its ground game often in its impactful games of late, but the team may be able to flip the field with ease against Iowa's somewhat overrated secondary.

The Wolverines are the best passing offense Iowa has seen this season and won't score themselves. Even if some Michigan drives stall, the team will be set up with short fields often as the team plays the field position battle against a poor Hawkeyes often.

It's a matter of time before Michigan finds the end zone and the dam breaks. Further, Harbaugh has scored in each of the last two Big Ten title games in the final two minutes despite being up big. Count on some style points late from the Wolverines.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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