It's a Trap: Which College Football Week 3 Odds are Most Deceiving?
By Ben Heisler
Two weeks of college football have been in the books, and fortunately, myself and Peter Dewey have been able to help sleuth out the "trap lines" set by oddsmakers to hook the public into betting the wrong side.
In Week 1, Fresno State was able to cover on the road at Oregon, while Texas took care of business at home against a ranked Louisiana squad. Then in Week 2, Peter was all over North Carolina laying 26-points against Georgia State as home, and we combined forces on the Toledo play as 17-point underdogs against Notre Dame in which the Irish had to score 18 points in the 4th just to crawl away with a home win.
Let's take a look at two college football matchups in Week 3 with lines at WynnBET Sportsbook that feel a tad bit off.
Charlotte vs Georgia State (-5) | TOTAL 63
After opening with Georgia State as four-point favorites at home, many college football bettors were likely perplexed.
Charlotte is 2-0 with a big Week 1 win on the road at Duke for their first ever win against a Power 5 school, and followed it up with a comfortable 38-10 home win against Gardner-Webb.
Meanwhile, Georgia State has been whopped in their two games so far this season. They were pummeled at home by Army 43-10, and then took another one on the chin to North Carolina 59-17 in Chapel Hill.
When oddsmakers hung the Panthers as home favorites by just over a field goal, most would have expected the line to move towards the 49ers. Instead, it appears to be the complete opposite, with the line moving a full point towards the 0-2 home team, rather than the 2-0 road team.
I'll side with the oddsmakers here and would look to fade the trendy underdog up to 5.5.
Colorado State vs. Toledo (-14.5) | TOTAL: 58.5
The Toledo Rockets opened right at -14 on the consensus line, but the line initially shifted a half point back towards the Colorado State Rams, who like Georgia State, are 0-2 facing a well-respected, public-backed team in Week 3. Now the line has moved a full point back towards Toledo at -14.5 as of Friday afternoon.
After getting nearly doubled up in Week 1 in a 42-23 loss at home to San Diego State, the Rams let a Week 2 victory slip away against Vanderbilt with two missed field goals.
As for Toledo, they cruised to a 49-10 home win against Norfolk State, and nearly hung on to beat No. 8 Notre Dame in South Bend, but gave up 18-points in the 4th quarter to lose 32-29. As I wrote about last week, the Rockets are a very strong squad with a ton of returning upper classmen, but are they really worthy of being two-touchdown favorites against Colorado State? I don't think so.
Colorado State has plenty of offensive firepower, and like to play fast with a top 5 pace on offense. While they blew a 14-0 lead last week vs. Vanderbilt, I think another fast start would be devastating for Toledo as they play a home game off a "shoulda-woulda-coulda" heartbreaker from the week before. These games feel like trap spots for the favorites, and with Colorado State needing a turnaround desperately, I just don't see the Rockets playing with the same urgency this week.
The public loves the Rockets after what they saw last week against the Irish, but I'll take my chances, especially getting more than two touchdowns.
WEEK 2 COLLEGE FOOTBALL TRAP GAME PREDICTIONS: 2-0
OVERALL: 4-0
Notice any traps the oddsmakers are setting and want to fade them? Get a risk-free bet of up to $1,000 over at WynnBET and start getting in on the action!