It's a Trap: Which College Football Week 14 Odds are Most Deceiving?
By Reed Wallach
Championship Week is upon us and we at BetSided are going to try and help you steer clear of all the potential land mines on the betting board.
There are 10 title games over the next two days, so let's check on three of these games that may be traps with odds courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.
Western Kentucky (-3) vs. UTSA
UTSA was undefeated ahead of last week's loss to North Texas, and already beat Western Kentucky, so why are they catching points in the Conference-USA?
Well, it's because these are two teams trending in opposite directions. Since that 52-46 loss to UTSA, the Hilltoppers have ripped off seven straight wins. While all the talk will be about electric quarterback Bailey Zappe and his 52 passing touchdowns, the improvement on the defensive side of the ball has been key.
The 'Tops haven't allowed more than 21 points over the course of the winning streak and will have too much firepower for the Roadrunners to handle. UTSA is outside the top 100 in explosive pass defense and won't be able to keep a lid on Zappe and co.
Meanwhile, UTSA has been playing with fire lately, escaping a win at the horn against UAB and only beating Southern Mississippi by 10 the week before that.
It's the perfect storm for a WKU title victory.
Appalachian State (-3) vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
Similar to the UTSA handicap, the Ragin' Cajun looks like an attractive underdog bet, mainly because they are at home in the Sun Belt Championship and are playing a team they beat 41-13 earlier in the year, but don't fall into the trap.
App State has the edge on the defensive line against a ULL team that wants to run the ball more than anything. The Mountaineers are No. 2 in the country in defensive line yards and will surely have revenge on their mind after being embarrassed earlier in the year.
Also, there's a chance that new Florida head coach Billy Napier will be busy with his new job and overlooking his final game as coach in the Bayou. Motivation has to be a question in this matchup for a ULL team that has won 10 straight.
I'll take the road favorite Appalachian State to get some sweet revenge and lift the trophy.
Georgia (-6.5) vs. Alabama
Georgia was -4 in the lookahead line of this matchup, but after Alabama hardly got past Auburn last week, this line has moved two-and-a-half points. Overreaction? I don't think so.
While I understand why oddsmakers are keeping this under a touchdown, I can't help but think this is setting up for a UGA route.
The Bulldogs own the Crimson Tide in the trenches and are going to make life difficult for Bryce Young. Any defensive metric I pull up had Georgia at the top or right near it. The D is No. 1 in points allowed, success rate and havoc.
The Crimson Tide offensive line struggled to create time for Young last Saturday against Auburn, he was sacked seven times. Overall, the Crimson Tide are banged up on the offensive line and will likely be down to one scholarship running back on Saturday. All the pressure will fall on Young and his arm, and I don't expect him to keep up.
The Bulldogs finally get over the hump and knock off Saban and Bama.