It's a Trap: Which Week 11 College Football Lines are Most Deceiving?

There are 130 FBS teams in college football. Which means there are many ways to be deceived.

Bettors were tricked in Week 10 by then-No. 20 Minnesota. The Gophers were favored by two touchdowns over Illinois, then lost straight up at home, 14-6.

After Michigan State’s big win over Michigan, many bettors couldn’t resist backing the Spartans again last week as 3-point road favorites. Instead, they got burned as Michigan State lost on the road to Purdue, 40-29.

The South Florida Bulls were nearly two touchdown underdogs to the Houston Cougars, but ended up scoring 42 points and covering the spread. 

Here are three potentially deceiving traps to look out for in Week 11, with odds courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

Cincinnati (-22.5) vs. South Florida

Let’s start with a Friday matchup.

Houston doesn’t have a bad defense and they allowed 42 points to South Florida last week. The same could happen again this week against the Cincinnati Bearcats.

Cincinnati is only 5-4 against the spread this season, and they have lost their last three spreads, all higher than 22-point favorites. I don’t think they will lose against South Florida, but the Bearcats might only win by 19 points or 17 points or something like that.

Most teams that Cincinnati has covered lofty spreads against had weak offenses that couldn’t hang with Desmond Ridder and the Bearcats, but South Florida has scored 29 or more points in each of the last three games, and should be able to keep it tighter than bettors and the playoff selection committee would like.

Michigan vs. Penn State (+1)

One point is all that separates Michigan and Penn State. Doesn’t that sound weird to you?

Both defenses are allowing just about 16 points per game, but the Wolverines offense is scoring just over nine more points per game. In terms of yardage allowed, Michigan’s defense is better than Penn State’s.

For Jim Harbaugh and his Wolverines, the offense is better, the defense is better, they have done a better job of holding onto the football, they’ve been better in the red zone, they have committed less penalties, and their kicker is better, too.

The books like Penn State in this game much more than I do. One point sounds wrong.

Syracuse vs. Louisville (-3)

The Louisville Cardinals are just 4-5 against the spread this season. The Syracuse Orange are 8-1 against the spread. Also, Louisville has only picked up one win against the spread as a favorite this season. That’s not too great.

This week, the Cardinals have to deal with running back Sean Tucker of Syracuse, who should be in the Heisman conversation.

The defense of the Orange is ranked 16th in total yards allowed and is allowing five less points per game than Louisville, plus Syracuse’s offense is scoring at a slightly higher 29.4 points per game to the Cardinals 28.8.

Sean Tucker is the reason Syracuse is 8-1 ATS.