It’s a Trap: Which Week 4 CFB Lines Are Most Deceiving

Week 4 of the college football season is upon us and it’s time to get creative. Some odds may stick out to you, but there is reason to pause and take a second. The sample size is building and there is value in fading the more popular name.

Here are three plays I’m eyeing that might be a trap with odds from WynnBET Sportsbook.

Utah State (+9) vs. Boise State

Many are familiar with Boise State and the smurf turf, while some of you may be playing catch up trying to get familiar with a Utah State team that has beaten Washington State and Air Force already this season. 

I was on the Aggies in last week’s moneyline underdog round robin, and I see them as undervalued again as nine-point home underdogs to the Broncos. 

Boise State is 1-2, losing a heartbreaker at home to Oklahoma State. The offensive line has been a work in progress for the Broncos, allowing eight sacks through three games and averaging just over two yards per carry. 

Now, they go to face a Utah State defense that’s rushing metrics may be a bit skewed after facing an explosive Air Force triple option with an early kickoff (10 AM local).

I’ll fade the narrative that Boise State is due for a bounce back and still a quality team. The Broncos struggled to keep pace with UCF, using an 100-yard interception return to stay close, and Utah State’s aerial attack is similar to that of the Golden Knights. 

Both transfer quarterback Logan Bonner and new coach Blake Anderson from Arkansas State are building something with the Aggies and I'm still buying.

Western Michigan (-2.5) vs. San Jose State

Everyone remembers last year’s Group of 5 darling San Jose State. 

The Spartans and transfer quarterback Nick Starkel went 7-1 last season, winning the Mountain West. 

However, we have seen some regression this season as Starkel has seen his completion percentage drop from 64% to 58% this season. This is a veteran team that has a ton of talent on both lines, but this is as bad of a spot as possible.

SJSU played a close game at Hawai’i last weekend, winning 17-13, and now have to travel across the country to play Western Michigan on Saturday afternoon. 

I have some caution considering WMU did pull an upset over Pittsburgh as +500 underdogs last weekend and we may have a trap in the other direction with news of head coach Tim Lester testing positive for COVID-19, but I'll fade the traveling Spartans here.

Quarterback Kaleb Eleby is one of the best in the country that no one is talking about, scoring 44 points on the road against Pitt, and I think we can take advantage of a fatigued SJSU team at under a field goal.

UTSA (+3) vs. Memphis 

Memphis was able to beat SEC foe Mississippi State at home last week, and now are only laying three points to UTSA? What gives? 

I was on the Tigers in the victory, but I was lucky to cash in that one considering the team (illegally) took a punt to the house and had a lost onside kick recovery overturned due to a penalty. 

Memphis was outgained by more than 200 yards in that one and have struggled against the run. The Tigers are outside the top 100 in defensive line yards, meaning they are getting pushed around at the line of scrimmage. 

They will face a UTSA offense that has a stud running back in Sincere McCormick who has broken 100 yards in two of the three games this season -- it’s worth noting that he only had seven carries in the other one, a 54-0 win. 

The Road Runners knocked off Illinois on the road earlier this season, and I see no reason why they can’t attack a soft Memphis defensive line and win another road game. I'll play this at +3, and will likely add them to this week's underdog round robin.

Any trap lines out there? Make sure to bet it on WynnBET Sportsbook!