John Deere Classic Betting Preview: Odds and Prediction

With The Open Championship on the horizon next week, we've got a light field in the John Deere Classic this week at TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois.

J.T. Poston won last year's event but finds himself with big odds, while Denny McCarthy, Russell Henley, and Cameron Young sit amongst the favorites in a group lacking star power.

Fans could be disappointed not to see some of the top players on tour competing, but these kinds of fields lend themselves to longshot value and we can capitalize on it. We claimed a +4500 victory on Poston last year, so we're eyeing another big winner this weekend.

Let's check out the odds before I jump into my favorite bets for the event.

Odds to Win John Deere Classic

John Deere Classic Picks and Predictions

A strong short game is paramount at TPC Deere Run, so I'll be targeting players with stellar marks in Strokes Gained: Approach, Around the Green, and Putting.

Winners typically shoot in the -20 to -25 range, so we need players with a high Birdie Percentage that can catch fire with the flat stick. Here is who I'm targeting:

Adam Schenk +3000

Schenk looks poised for a breakthrough win sooner than later, posting a top-seven finish in three of his last five tournaments including a playoff loss at the Charles Schwab Classic.

He's an Indiana native so he'll have familiarity with the conditions and his game fits TPC Deere Run well. Schenk is fourth in the field in Birdie Percentage and fifth in Strokes Gained: Approach while ranking 41st on the whole tour in Strokes Gained: Putting this year.

With the kind of stylistic profile we're eyeing and a number of close results of late, Schenk presents a strong value at +3000.

Chris Kirk +3300

One of the best short-game players in this tournament, Kirk will be in contention provided he doesn't struggle too much off the tee.

Over the last 36 rounds, Kirk leads the field in Hole Proximity from 125-150 yards out while ranking in the top seven in 75-125 as well. He's an above-average putter and ranks 11th on tour this year in Strokes Gained: Around the Green.

Coming off a T14 finish at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, Kirk carries win equity in this weak field and I could see him catching fire the same way Poston did last year.

Patrick Rodgers Top 20 +200

Rodgers finished second at this tournament in 2017 and is from Indiana, so he's familiar with the area just like Schenk is. He excels at these kinds of tournaments, ranking 12th in Strokes Gained: Total on easy courses.

After making the cut in seven of his last nine competitions with three top-20 finishes in more difficult fields, Rodgers is ready to contend this week. He's not a great approach player, but he's 27th in Strokes Gained: Around-The-Green and 36th in Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee, so he can mitigate that weakness by excelling in those areas.

With above-average putting ranks, Rodgers can get hot at a course he's shown comfort at and pull off a top-20 finish at plus odds.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.