John Deere Classic Score Predictions (How Will Top Players Fare at TPC Deere Run?)

The 2022 John Deere Classic gets going this week at TPC Deere Run after two incredible weeks of golf.

This field is relatively light, with many of the game's top golfers taking this week off, but the course is made for birdies and the action should still be thrilling.

You can check out my tournament preview and favorite dark horse picks, but now I want to look at the top of the odds leaderboard at WynnBET Sportsbook. How will the favorites perform and should bettors look to them for value?

2022 John Deere Classic Score Predictions

Winning Score: -23

TPC Deere Run features wide fairways, limited obstructions and bent grass that make putting a breeze. As a result, the winner almost always goes obscenely low.

Lucas Glover won last year's event with a -19 score, Dylan Frittelli won with -21, Michael Kim with -27, and so on. In fact, the winning score was -20 or better in nine of the last 11 editions of the John Deere Classic. With solid weather in store, I expect more of the same this weekend.

Webb Simpson (+1200) - Score Prediction: -18

Simpson's game suits TPC Deere Run well. He's a great putter on bent grass and excels at short approach shots. With a T13 finish at the Travelers Championship and -10 score, he's the rightful favorite.

I think he'll finish near the top but fall just shy. He's a worthy bet regardless.

Adam Hadwin (+1800) - Score Prediction: -16

Hadwin makes his return to the John Deere Classic after finishing T8 back in 2016. He has four top-10 finishes in his last nine tournaments thanks to his steller Around-The-Green and Tee-To-Green play.

He's excellent at the short approach shots, but I fear his inconsistent putter may let him down in the end.

Sahith Theegala (+2200) - Score Prediction: -11

One would understand if Theegala has a poor week after a disastrous 18th hole cost him a victory at the Travelers Championship. He's due for a win on Tour soon, but I don't think it comes this week.

Theegala ranks 160th in approaches from 50-125 yards and is a poor putter. While he's fully capable of rattling off birdies if he gets hot, I think the emotional letdown from last week will be too much to overcome.

Charles Howell III (+2500) - Score Prediction: -15

Howell has two top-20 finishes in his last three trips to TPC Deere Run. He ranks eighth on Tour in approach shots from 75-100 yards and 16th in Strokes Gained: Around-The-Green.

I fully expect Howell to make the cut, but his inconsistent putter gives me pause to list him with the other names here.

Denny McCarthy (+2800) - Score Prediction: -17

McCarthy ranks fifth on Tour in Strokes Gained: Putting this season and is likely the best bent grass putter in the field. Before missing the cut last week, he posted consecutive top-10s at the Memorial and U.S. Open.

Once McCarthy gets close to the green, he's among the very best in the field. But getting there may be an issue, as he's 137th in Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee and 147th in Strokes Gained: Approach. I like him as a matchup play and possible top-10, but I don't think he'll emerge victorious. Of course, with how strong a putter McCarthy is, he's fully capable of going supernova on these greens.

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.