Justin Moore Injury: Is the Villanova Guard's Injury Creating Betting Value?
By Reed Wallach
It's Final Four week and the betting markets are sharper than ever with nearly a full week to prepare for the national semifinals. However, there is one change from last week to this week that is creating a change in power ratings.
At the end of Villanova's Elite 8 victory over Houston, guard Justin Moore suffered a ruptured Achilles tendon, ending his season. As the Wildcats get set for their Final Four matchup against Kansas, they will be down one of their key starters.
The spread opened with Kansas -4 and quickly moved to -4.5 at WynnBET Sportsbook, factoring in that Nova will be shorthanded, but how much is Moore worth to the point spread? Is this number correct, or is the injury news leading to an overreaction?
Justin Moore Impact on Point Spread vs. Kansas
Moore's impact can't be understated. He played in 83.8% of the team's minutes and missed one game this season, according to KenPom. The Nova wing ranked in the 96th percentile in minutes per game with 34, per CBBAnalytics.
Further, he led the Wildcats in shot percentage, taking more than a quarter of the team's shots, so what can Nova do to make up for this loss?
Well, it helps that Wright has a reliable point guard in Collin Gillespie that can run the offense. The senior floor general played just as many minutes as Moore and is in the 89th percentile in assists per game. While Moore is a floor spacer and makes life easier for Gillespie, the Wildcats are a veteran club that is top 35 in minutes continuity this season, including Caleb Daniels, who shot 37% from deep this season to take on a bigger role.
Villanova's Offense Can Thrive vs. Kansas
With or without Moore, Kansas' defense can be had. The team may be 17th in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom, but is 47th in ShotQuality's adjusted defensive efficiency, meaning that the team's allows good looks to opponents and should be much worse than their record indicates.
KU doesn't force turnovers (191st in turnover rate) and is fine on the defensive glass (159th in DREB%). Gillespie can create efficient looks for this offense against a leaky defense that has been ripe for regression all Tournament.
Moore's loss will hurt on the perimeter against a sweet shooting Kansas team, but the Jayhawks don't allow a ton of 3's to begin with, 74th lowest opponent 3-point rate this season, and the Wildcats can use their inverted offense with Gillespie in the post to take advantage of the Jayhawks backcourt and finish inside. While Nova isn't a big team by any means, it does matchup well against a small frontcourt rotation of David McCormack and Mitch Lightfoot.
The Wildcats may have been middling on the glass this season, but they showed they are more than capable of hanging on the glass against an elite rebounding team in Houston on both sides of the floor.
I'm not concerned about Villanova's top 10 offense finding answers on that side of the ball, but I still believe this line is an overreaction because of the stark contrast in styles. Kansas wants to run, as it posted the 40th fastest average possession length in the country, but Nova put up the ninth slowest. The team is excellent at limiting transition opportunities and if they are able to force the Jayhawks into a half court grind, I'll be happy to have Villanova with the points.
If Wright and the Cats find a way to slow this game into a half court matchup, they can stay within this number. Yes, the loss of Moore is significant, but with Nova's deliberate pace and excellent game planning from Wright, I'm going to lean towards them being a valuable underdog considering there will be a low amount of possessions and I'm not confident in the KU defense exposing the loss of Moore.
Most advanced metric sites pegged the Jayhawks as a 1-point favorite, including KenPom and Haselmetrics. Even if we factor in that the Wildcats closed as 3-point underdogs to Houston in the Elite 8, I don't believe that Kansas is 1.5 points better than the Cougars nor that Moore is worth more than 1-point.
Let's look at the other side, with Kansas closing as 6-point favorites against Miami in the Elite 8. Miami and Villanova sans Moore are not separated by 1.5 points.
Sure, Kansas can cover, but what I'm saying is that there are a ton of reasons to believe that this line is an overreaction to the injury of Moore and that Nova is undervalued in the market. The defense is vulnerable, the recent closing spreads don't show any value, and their is a decisive coaching advantage with Wright a far superior game planner than Bill Self.
If this line hits 5, I'll be adding to my Villanova +4.5 wager.
You can find all of Reed's bets HERE!