Justin Verlander vs. Dylan Cease: Which AL Cy Young Candidate Is the Better Bet in Astros vs. White Sox?

For the first time since Dwight Gooden vs. John Tudor in September of 1985, two starting pitchers with ERAs of 2.00 or lower face off against one another.

Both Astros starter Justin Verlander and White Sox pitcher Dylan Cease have put together remarkable seasons with their respective teams; putting each in a prime position for the American League Cy Young award.

Verlander remains the consensus favorite, but not the runaway candidate just yet. He's currently as low as -125 at FanDuel Sportsbook to take home his third Cy Young. Meanwhile, Cease is right behind him in the mix; coming in as short as +150 at PointsBet, while still offering value at +250 at Caesars.

Earlier last week, I wrote how I would actually consider Cease to be the favorite if I were setting odds, endorsing the 26-year old right-hander with odds at the time of +275 to finish ahead of Verlander. But does that mean bettors should back him over the current favorite tonight?

Here are the latest odds for tonight's game over at BetMGM:

Astros vs. White Sox Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

• Astros -1.5 (+140)
• White Sox +1.5 (-165)

Moneyline:

• Astros -125
• White Sox +105

Total:

• 7 (OVER -105 | UNDER -115)

BetSided's Iain MacMillan offers a full betting preview on which side he's on for the game here, but let's take a look at a few notable prop bets available to see which pitcher offers the best value on the board using the odds at BetMGM.

Justin Verlander vs. Dylan Cease Strikeout Props

• Verlander 6.5 (OVER +105 | UNDER -150)
• Cease 7.5 (OVER +110 | UNDER -155)

Cease owns a decisive advantage in strikeouts per nine innings to Verlander: racking up 12.17 compared to 8.87, so it makes sense to see a full strikeout more to his name.

However, their matchups tonight aren't likely to get them there, as both Houston and Chicago rank in the top five in strikeout percentage this season.

While Cease's K-rate climbs up to over 13 per nine innings at home, Verlander's drops down to 8.27 on the road. Cease appears to have more variance in where his final numbers might land, whereas Verlander appears to be a safer bet to go under away from home.

PICK: Justin Verlander UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (-150)

Justin Verlander vs. Dylan Cease Total Outs Recorded

• Verlander 18.5 (OVER -120 | UNDER -115)
• Cease 17.5 (OVER -185 | UNDER +125)

Verlander has gone eight straight games of six innings or more, while Cease has gone at least six innings in five consecutive starts; giving Cease a slight advantage due to his total out prop of just under six innings at 17.5 outs.

Furthermore, despite the remarkable consistency, Verlander has only hit this prop in four of his last eight.

The last time Dylan Cease failed to go a minimum of six innings at home was back on June 9 against the L.A. Dodgers; lasting just 4.2 innings; giving up six runs but none of them earned.

Houston's lineup is dangerous, but knowing what's currently at stake for the White Sox as the calendar ticks away, expect Tony La Russa to give Cease every possible opportunity to go a minimum of six.

PICK: Dylan Cease OVER 17.5 Total Outs (-185)

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