Keep Fading This James Harden Player Prop for Heat vs Sixers in Game 6

Fading James Harden's prop bet numbers may feel like the most public bet of the night, but sometimes the numbers just don't lie.

As Harden's Philadelphia 76ers host the Miami Heat as a 1.5-point favorite at WynnBET Sportsbook in Game 6 this evening, the overlying numbers for "The Beard" in postseason elimination games are alarming.

In his career, Harden is 1-7 in elimination matchups, shooting under 40% from the floor, and a dismal 23.7% from three-point range. He also averages 6.3 turnovers in win-or-go-home matchups.

While all four of those trends and stats make a case to go against the Sixers' guard tonight, I'm focused on one specific prop number on the board: James Harden OVER/UNDER 2.5 made 3-pointers.

Personally, I can't push that under bet fast enough.

Harden's 3-Point Attempts Lowest of His Career During 2022 NBA Playoffs

Over the last 10 games in the playoffs, Harden has failed to hit three 3-pointers made. The lone exception came in his previous game in Philadelphia, as Harden made six threes en route to the 76ers tying up the series.

Ahead of Game 5, I anticipated that Harden would not shoot lights out again, and he returned to go under in their last matchup.

So if Harden shot it well and often in Game 4 in Philadelphia? Why is he not expected to do so again?

Besides the growing sample size of his struggles in elimination games, Harden's three-point attempts have gone down significantly in the postseason this year. Via Meadowlark Media NBA insider Tom Haberstroh, Harden's attempts from downtown are at his lowest level in four years; averaging just 6.3 shots from behind the arc during this year's playoffs.

BetSided's Peter Dewey is siding with the underdog Heat at +115 odds to pull off the upset and advance to the Eastern Conference Finals against the winner of Celtics-Bucks.

Check out his analysis for the upset here, as well as his three favorite props for tonight's matchup.

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