Lamar Jackson Stat Predictions vs. Colts on Monday Night Football

It’s no secret that Lamar Jackson is one of the most electric players in the NFL. The playmaking ability he has with his legs as a quarterback is second to none and allows us to bet creatively with him. Unlike most of his peers under center, Jackson is a true runner and my picks for him on Monday night will reflect this. 

The Baltimore Ravens host the Indianapolis Colts tonight as seven-point favorites at home. This is a perfect matchup for Jackson to put in some work with his legs and bring the Ravens winning streak to four. 

With that in mind, let’s take a deep dive into Jackson’s prop odds tonight from WynnBET and pick a trio of winners to cap off Week 5 in the NFL. 

Lamar Jackson Over 65.5 Rushing Yards (Over -125/Under -115)

The Ravens have been nothing if not a run-first team since Jackson took over for Joe Flacco in 2018. To highlight this point, consider the Ravens’ success last year as the 32nd-ranked passing team in the league. They make up for their shortcomings by rolling out a wicked run game and Jackson is the key to that strategy. 

This season has been a little different, however, with the loss of a few quality running back options to back up Jackson like J.K. Dobbins (injury), Gus Edwards (injury) and Mark Ingram (free agency).

So, you have a runner as talented as Jackson with no real help in the backfield. In six games last year with help, Jackson ran for more than 65.5 yards on six different occasions including once in the playoffs. 

While the Colts' rushing defense is ‘fine,' they rank 17th in the league in terms of rushing yards given up with 114 per game, Jackson is just that much better. In four games, he has already gone over this total twice and almost doubled it in a win over the Chiefs in week two. Jackson was quiet last week against the Broncos’ sixth-ranked rushing defense and I think he will be primed on Monday night to break a few runs and finish with 100 yards on the ground. 

Lamar Jackson Over 204.0 Yards Passing (-100)

Jackson is not only a world-class runner, but he is also a very capable quarterback through the air. So far this season, Jackson has yet to finish a game with less than 200 yards through the air and is coming off his first 300-yard performance against the Broncos in Week 4. While the Colts are a better team defensively in the air than they are on the ground, I still wonder if it will be enough to keep Jackson under 204 yards tonight. 

The Ravens do such a good job of mixing up plays that Indy could find itself in trouble early if it can’t contain the run game. This will lead to gaps in their passing defense that I’m betting Jackson will be able to exploit. 

Lamar Jackson to Score a TD and Ravens Win (+110)

This bet is almost doubling down on Jackson to have a strong game on the ground. As I pointed out, the Colts aren’t a terrible defensive team, especially in the passing game. Therefore, I think that Jackson will need to open things up with his legs to get the passing game up and running early. If he can find success on the ground, which I believe he can, I see the Ravens sticking to this game plan and let Jackson do what he does best. 

As far as the Ravens winning this game, they are touchdown favorites heading into a home game and need this win to keep pace with the Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Chargers in the AFC. 

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