While most of our time here at BetSided is spent looking for good teams to bet on, sometimes it’s fun to rummage through the bottom of the dumpster looking for a gem.
According to the season win totals set for the upcoming NFL season, the Houston Texans and Atlanta Falcons are expected to fight for the worst team in the NFL. Each team’s win total is just 4.5 games right now at WynnBET Sportsbook.
Despite the bleak outlook, that doesn’t mean that the Falcons and Texans are devoid of any betting value. The Texans, for example, are +115 to win five games. Doesn’t sound like a tall task for most teams but Houston will struggle to hit that low mark. So, which of these two teams, if either, are worth a look to go over?
If you read my recent article about NFL win totals to fade in 2022, you’d know that the Falcons are not a team I am high on.
In fact, I think you’d have to be high to expect much from this ragtag group in the upcoming season. After finishing last season at 7-10, the Falcons will start the season without Matt Ryan for the first time since 2008.
Ryan is 37 and it was time. He didn’t look sharp last year and the Falcons had to move on. However, they didn’t make a big move to find a permanent solution. Instead, they signed Marcus Mariota to handle quarterbacking duties in Atlanta this year. He’s here to fill a spot until the Falcons can find a better option to build around.
They had a nice draft, but are years away from competing.
Meanwhile, I think the Texans have a decent shot to eclipse the low bar set for them by the oddsmakers. Lovie Smith is taking over this team and is going to stick with Davis Mills under center in his sophomore season.
He looked promising last year, and I’m excited to see if he can continue his development in 2022. The biggest issue here is that the Texans will be trying to develop this team while playing the fifth toughest schedule in the NFL.
The games they do play against weak teams such as the Chicago Bears and New York Giants, are mostly taking place on the road. To get to five wins the Texans will need to win those games, sweep the Jacksonville Jaguars and get one lucky win against a good team.
It's definitely doable and far more likely than the Falcons going over this total.
Follow all of Matt De Saro’s betting picks HERE.