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Liberty vs. Oregon Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for Fiesta Bowl

By Reed Wallach

Dec 1, 2023; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Bo Nix (10) looks to throw against the
Dec 1, 2023; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Bo Nix (10) looks to throw against the / Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
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Oregon's pursuit of the College Football Playoff came up just short, but still qualified for a New Year's Six Bowl.

The Ducks may have some opt-outs, but Bo Nix is set to play in his final college game under center for Oregon against Liberty in the Fiesta Bowl on New Year's Day. The Flames posted an undefeated regular season in its first season in Conference USA under first-year head coach Jamey Chadwell and will look to cap it off in what would be the biggest upset of bowl season.

How should we bet on this matchup? We have you covered below with our full Fiesta Bowl betting preview!

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Liberty vs. Oregon Odds, Spread and Total

Oregon vs. Liberty Betting Trends

Liberty vs. Oregon How to Watch

  • Date: Monday, January 1st
  • Game Time: 1:00 PM EST
  • Venue: State Farm Stadium
  • How to Watch (TV): ESPN
  • [Away Team] Record: 13-0
  • [Home Team] Record: 11-2

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Liberty vs. Oregon Key Players to Watch

Liberty

Kaidon Salter: Salter is slated to play in this game after a monster campaign, leading the Flames offense to the third-best EPA/play mark in the country. Salter passed for more than 2,600 yards and ran for more than 1,100 while totaling 43 touchdowns in the undefeated season.

Oregon

Bo Nix: Nix was the odds-on favorite to win the Heisman Trophy before the Ducks lost the PAC-12 Championship game against Washington and now will set his sights on the NFL. However, the near winner has vowed to play in this one and finish out his monster season. Nix passed for more than 4,000 yards and tossed 40 touchdowns this season for the top offense in the country in terms of success rate.

Liberty vs. Oregon Prediction and Pick

Liberty deserves full credit for going undefeated in Conference USA, but that is by some measurements the worst conference in college football this season. The team is simply not prepared to play a College Football Playoff contender in Oregon.

Sure, there are some opt-outs for the Ducks, including running back Bucky Irving, wide receiver Troy Franklin, center Jackson Powers-Johnson, and cornerback Khyree Johnson. There could be more on the way, but the impact of Nix playing makes me bullish that the Ducks can move the ball at will against Liberty's defense, which checked in 71st in EPA/Play this season against an already stated easy schedule.

While Liberty could have nearly its entire offense at its disposal for this one, this is simply too much of a talent gap between the two teams. Chadwell's offense was third in EPA/Play against one of the three easiest strengths of schedules while the Ducks checked in second against a PAC-12 schedule.

Oregon's pass rush is incredibly potent and keeps teams out of the end zone, allowing less than 10 yards per play this season and 17th in success rate in the country. Even with some opt-outs, the Ducks will be the most difficult defense Liberty has seen this season.

With Nix on the field, I believe he cooks, and it will only take a few stops for the Ducks defense to get margin. Liberty's numbers are skewed against easy competition and there is enough talent on the Oregon side to cover.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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