Lions-49ers and Chiefs-Ravens Odds Movement: Spread Moving in Home Team's Favor
By Peter Dewey
There has been some major line movement just a few days before the AFC and NFC Championship Games -- and it favors both of the home teams.
At DraftKings Sportsbook, the Baltimore Ravens have moved to four-point favorites in the AFC title game after opening at -3.5.
Chiefs vs. Ravens Odds, Spread for AFC Championship Game
Baltimore has been the second-best team in the NFL against the spread this season, but this could be a tough test to cover the spread against Patrick Mahomes.
In his career, Mahomes is 9-1-1 against the spread and 8-3 straight as an underdog, including a road win over the Buffalo Bills as a dog last week.
Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are looking to defend home field in Jackson's first-ever AFC title game. This is the sixth time that Mahomes has played in the AFC Championship.
It's interesting that the line has moved similarly in the NFC title game in San Francisco...
Lions vs. 49ers Odds, Spread for NFC Championship Game
The 49ers, who opened as seven-point favorites, are now favored by 7.5 points at DraftKings Sportsbook.
However, the 49ers are just 3-6 ATS as home favorites this season, and they are on a concerning streak against the spread in Santa Clara.
The San Francisco 49ers are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games, tied for their second-longest home ATS losing streak in the Super Bowl era, per @ESPNStatsInfo
— Ben Fawkes (@BFawkes22) January 25, 2024
Could this be a chance for bettors to get an extra half point with the Lions? I broke down in my spread picks this week why I think Detroit can cover. The team has thrived as an underdog under Dan Campbell:
Since 2021 when Dan Campbell took over as Detroit’s head coach, the team is 21-10 against the spread as an underdog, including a 2-1 mark ATS this season.
After failing to cover in the divisional round, the 49ers and Kyle Shanahan have slipped to 3-6 against the spread as home favorites in the 2023 season.
Overall, Shanahan is 20-22-1 ATS as a home favorite in his head coaching career.
Could the Lions take advantage of the hook to cover against San Fran? It's possible.
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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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