Louisville vs. Florida State Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for ACC Championship

Breaking down a best bet for the ACC Championship this week.

Nov 11, 2023; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles wide receiver Keon Coleman (4)
Nov 11, 2023; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles wide receiver Keon Coleman (4) / Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports
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Florida State is one win away from completing an undefeated regular season and an ACC title with likely a College Football Playoff appearance as well, but must get passed a formidable Louisville squad first.

The Seminoles navigated Florida in a rivalry game with backup Tate Rodemaker under center, but now face a stiffer test in Louisville with an ACC Championship on the game. Can FSU finish the job as small favorites on a neutral field?

Here are the odds and our best bet for the Saturday night title game:

Louisville vs. Florida State Odds, Spread and Total

Florida State vs. Louisville Betting Trends

  • Louisville is 7-4-1 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • Louisville is 1-0 ATS as an underdog this season
  • Florida State is 7-5 ATS this season
  • Floirda State has gone OVER in seven of 12 games this season

Louisville vs. Florida State How to Watch

  • Date: Saturday, Dec. 2
  • Game Time: 8:00 PM EST
  • Venue: Bank of America Stadium
  • How to Watch (TV): ABC
  • Louisville Record: 10-2
  • Florida State Record: 12-0

Louisville vs. Florida State Key Players to Watch

Louisville

Jack Plummer: Plummer has been the signal caller for an above average EPA/Pass offense (41st), but he has struggled under pressure. According to Pro Football Focus, Plummer has completed only 48% on less than five yards per pass attempt. Can he handle a top 10 pass rush in Florida State to create explosive plays through the air?

Florida State

Tate Rodemaker: It wasn't pretty, Rodemaker completed 12-of-25 passes for 134 yards, but he navigated a win for Florida State at Florida. Can he improve from an admittedly poor start against Florida with more reps? Louisville's defense has been stout against the run, but is outside the top 100 in explosive pass defense, can Rodemaker hit a few chunk plays to the likes of Keon Coleman to change the trajectory of this game?

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Louisville vs. Florida State Prediction and Pick

Get our take on EVERY conference title game this weekend HERE!

Florida State deserves credit for rallying from down double digits to knock off Florida. While Louisville has proven to be a far better team than the Gators, I believe we are going to see a better Seminoles team on Saturday with another week of prep for the backup quarterback Rodemaker.

No, Rodemaker didn't play well last week, completing less than 50% of his passes and taking a safety in the process. However, the floor has been set fairly low and I do believe he can improve now that he has some serious game action. Further, I think this matchup sets up well for Florida State's defense to give the offense an opportunity to win the game.

As noted above, Plummer has struggled under pressure this season, completing less than 50% of his passes, per PFF. Florida State is sixth in pass rush grade, meaning that the team should be able to get home against a Louisville offensive line that is above average, but not elite, 30th in pass block grade.

If Louisville looks to try and open this game up on the ground, I believe that won't bare fruit against Florida State's front seven, who are top 10 in defensive line yards. I expect that the group shuts down Louisville's dynamic group of running backs in Jawhar Jordan and Isaac Guerendo and force Plummer to need to win the game with his arm, which will fail.

Florida State has the more dynamic playmakers, and I trust Mike Norvell to put Rodemaker in a position to succeed, especially after a full game of reps. It's worth noting that Louisville is outside of the top 100 in explosive play rate, and all it takes is a few chunk plays to decide a game with a total trending down.

With the spread inside of a field goal, I need to step in and play the Noles to cover and finish its undefeated regular season with an ACC title.