LSU vs. Mississippi State Prediction, Odds and Spread for College Football Week 4

Mississippi State and LSU start SEC play on Saturday night in Starkville, Mississippi. 

The Bulldogs are coming off a gut wrenching loss to Memphis while LSU is looking to sustain some momentum, winning two straight after dropping its opening game to UCLA. 

Who has the edge on Saturday afternoon? Let’s check out the odds, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

LSU vs. Mississippi State Spread, Odds and Over/Under

Spread: 

LSU: -2.5 (-110)

Mississippi State: +2.5 (-110)

Moneyline: 

LSU: -130

Mississippi State: +110

Over/Under: 56 (Over -110/Under -110)

LSU vs. Mississippi State Betting Trends

• LSU covered for the first time this season last week, moving to 1-2 on the year
• Mississippi State coach Mike Leach is 10-18 ATS in his last 28 games
• LSU is 9-7-1 as a road favorite under coach Ed Orgeron 
• Mississippi State is 9-5 to the UNDER since 2020, when Leach became head coach

I mentioned last week that I was interested in fading Mississippi State on the road against Memphis, but now will be back on the Bulldogs as a home underdog. 

I project them as a favorite in this matchup against another fade worthy candidate in LSU. While there is an angle for the Tigers motivated to erase the memory of last year’s Week 1 shocking loss to the Bulldogs in Death Valley, I’m not confident Ed O can rally his team on the road, evident in the team’s lifeless loss to UCLA earlier this season.

LSU got bad news after the Central Michigan win last weekend, losing defensive end Andre Anthony for the season. Anthony had 3.5 sacks through three games. Fellow DE Ali Gaye has missed the last two games, his status is unknown right now for Saturday.

While the LSU defensive front is still strong, and Leach’s air raid offense is pass heavy anyway, the Miss. State defense has been stronger to date. The team is elite in both tackling, per Pro Football Focus, and in generating havoc, which is a calculation of tackles for loss, passes defended, and forced fumbles divided by total plays. 

While I bet against the Bulldogs last week, I left quite impressed and was lucky to cash my bet, given the hectic touchdown Memphis scored to seal a victory.

MSU’s defense limited the Tigers to less than five yards per play, and outgained them 468-246. Now they will not only face a banged up LSU defensive line, but also a suspect offensive line that is 119th in offensive line yards this season. The Bulldogs defensive line has been disruptive this season and has an edge in this matchup. 

I don't envision the visitors can get their running game going here, and will back Leach to find success underneath with his quick passing game plan.

I was able to jump on this at +4 in the market early, but it has since moved through the key number of 3, and now sitting at +2.5. I'm not rushing to back LSU on the road given the last time we saw them face a quality opponent and the sturdiness of the Mississippi State defense against a tougher schedule over the past two weeks. 

At this point, I'm going to add to the Miss. State moneyline, likely in my round robin to come out later this week.

Pick: Mississippi State ML at any underdog price

Think can Mississippi State can win as small underdogs? Place your bet at WynnBET Sportsbook!