Betsided

Mariners vs. Nationals Game 1 Prediction and Odds for Wednesday, July 13 (Washington Favored vs. Red-Hot Seattle?)

By Ben Heisler

Washington Nationals starting pitcher Josiah Gray has pitched to a 2.46 ERA over his last seven starts.
Washington Nationals starting pitcher Josiah Gray has pitched to a 2.46 ERA over his last seven starts. / Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
facebooktwitterreddit

The Seattle Mariners were rained out of their opportunity to win their ninth consecutive game on Tuesday night. Instead, they'll try to make it nine and 10 in a row on the same day when they face the Washington Nationals in a day/night doubleheader on Wednesday.

For as good as Seattle has been of late, Washington has been just as terrible. They've lost 10 of their last 11 games and are tied with the Oakland Athletics for the league's worst record.

Mariners starting pitcher Chris Flexen takes the ball for the Mariners in Game 1 against fellow right-hander Josiah Gray, as both pitchers look to improve on strong starts their previous time out.

While it should feel obvious for who should be favored, the answer may surprise you.

Here are the latest odds for Game 1 of today's doubleheader courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

Mariners vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Mariners +1.5 (-190)
  • Nationals -1.5 (+170)

Moneyline:

  • Mariners: -103
  • Nationals: -108

Total:

  • 9 (OVER -115 | UNDER -105)

Mariners vs. Nationals Prediction and Pick

Similar to Tuesday night, when the struggling Chicago Cubs were favorites at home to the streaking Baltimore Orioles, I see the same scenario for today taking place at Nats Park.

Granted, the Cubs blew an early lead and fell to Baltimore 4-2, but I still believe that Vegas is hinting at where the right side is for this afternoon, and leading the public into a trap to take the hotter team in Seattle.

BetSided's Joe Summers covered this in his initial preview for this game on Tuesday, but it bears repeating today. Josiah Gray has been sensational over the past month and a half for the Nationals, and the numbers (other than wins/losses) reflect that.

His ERA over his past seven outings is 2.46. Take out the six run game against the Miami Marlins, and we're talking about a 1.29 ERA over his last six starts.

As for Flexen, Summers also pointed out that despite Flexen's 4.00 ERA, his expected ERA (xERA) via Fangraphs is more than a full run higher. He also is amongst the worst percentile pitchers via MLB Statcast in multiple categories this season, including hard hit percentage (23rd), strikeout percentage (15th), expected weighted-on-base average (xwOBA) (16th), and xERA (16th).

I'll slightly tail his pick on Washington F5, but instead I'll take the under on Seattle's total team runs instead at UNDER 2.5

LEAN: Mariners F5 UNDER 2.5 Team Total Runs (-145)

Follow all of Ben's betting plays in real-time HERE!

Home/MLB Picks