Marlins vs. Phillies Prediction and Odds for Thursday, August 11 (Cabrera Is a Rising Star)

Edward Cabrera threw five no-hit innings against the Cubs in his return from injury
Edward Cabrera threw five no-hit innings against the Cubs in his return from injury / David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

Kyle Gibson seems to have solved his June woes for the Philadelphia Phillies. After compiling a 5.81 ERA in June, Gibson allowed one run or fewer in four of his last five starts for a Phillies club that sits firmly in the playoffs.

That being said, the real story of this game is Miami Marlins' rookie Edward Cabrera, who threw five no-hit innings against the Cubs in his return from injury last week. Cabrera has one poor start in his young career, allowing five runs to the Astros, but he's been sublime otherwise.

In Cabrera's other three starts, he's allowed three hits and just one run in 17 innings while striking out 21 batters. Including his rehab outings in the minors, he's now gone four consecutive starts without allowing a run.

That'll play. Can Cabrera's hot streak continue or will Philadelphia keep rolling behind Gibson?

To help find the value in this Marlins vs Phillies matchup, here are the the consensus odds:

Marlins vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Marlins +1.5 (-150)
  • Phillies -1.5 (+130)


  • Marlins: +140
  • Phillies: -165


  • 8.0 (Over -120/Under +100)

Marlins vs. Phillies Prediction and Pick

I know I talk up a lot of young pitchers, but um, have you seen Edward Cabrera!?

That changeup averages 93.3 MPH, or 1.5 MPH faster than Kyle Gibson's average fastball. Opponents are hitting .147 against Cabrera's changeup to go with a .083 batting average against his fastball and a .111 average against his curveball. As a cherry on top, Cabrera's slider is decent too:

Yup, this guy's got the goods. If he can maintain command, the Marlins' pitching staff has an absolutely deadly core between Cabrera, NL Cy Young-favorite Sandy Alcantara and rising stud Braxton Garrett.

It's the lineup that has significant issues, but I'm still not a believer in Gibson despite his recent success. He has a FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) above 4.95 in three of his last four home starts, including a disastrous 8.88 FIP against those Cubs that Cabrera no-hit and an unheard-of 18.11 FIP against the Cardinals.

Gibson is due for negative regression and Cabrera is a monster. I don't know how long Cabrera will last in the outing, though, and don't trust Miami's bullpen. Thus, I'll look to the first five innings for value at WynnBET. Lock the Marlins in and enjoy every magical Cabrera pitch.

Pick: Marlins First Five Innings

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.