Super Bowl 58 is drawing closer and closer and the big bets continue to hit the ledger.
Despite the notion that the Kansas City Chiefs are the right side of the Super Bowl given the teams pedigree as two time Super Bowl winners in the Patrick Mahomes era, many big bets are coming in on the San Francisco 49ers, like this one from Caesars Sportsbook.
The 49ers have been holding as small favorites in a rematch of Super Bowl 54, and our betting expert Iain MacMillan is in lockstep with some of the bigger bettors on this one. Here's what he had to say in his Road to 272:
Sign up for Caesars Sportsbook to get your first bet matched up to $1,000! All you have to do is sign up below.
Chiefs vs. 49ers Prediction and Pick
It may seem stupid to some people to bet against Patrick Mahomes, but that's exactly what I'm going to do. Let's all take a step back from these past two games, for both teams, and think about this season as a whole.
The 49ers, for the majority of the 2023 NFL campaign, was the best team in the NFL and if you didn't think they were the best, you would have slot them in at No. 2 behind only the Baltimore Ravens. It wasn't just because of their record either. Let's look at where they rank in some key offensive metrics:
- Net Yards per Play: 1st
- EPA per Play: 1st
- Success rate: 1st
- Dropback EPA: 1st
- Dropback success rate: 1st
- Rush EPA: 1st
- Rush success rate: 2nd
- Average scoring margin: 2nd
- Red zone offense: 1st
- Third down offense: 3rd
Those are some pretty solid numbers, if I do say so myself. They rank first offensive in just about every single category. Defensively, they're a little bit closer to the middle of the pack, but they still have allowed the third fewest points per game.
Let's also remember that they have the best weapon possible to attack the Chiefs' defensive weakness. Kansas City has allowed teams to run the ball against them all season, ranking 25th in opponent yards per carry, 28th in opponent rush EPA and 23rd in opponent rush success rate. For some reason, the Ravens refused to run the football against them in the AFC Championship and it cost them.
Now, the 49ers have a chance to sick Christian McCaffrey on them. He may just drag this team to victory.
Is it concerning that they'll face this era's version of the GOAT in Patrick Mahomes? Yes. Is how the 49ers have come out in the first half in each of their two playoff games something to worry about? Yes.
With that being said, the 49ers have been the best team in the NFL this season but yet are only 1.5-point favorites. We need to base our evaluation off a full season of games, not just the latest two.
I'll bet on the 49ers to get their revenge and win the franchise's first Super Bowl since 1994.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.