Memphis vs. SMU Prediction and Odds For AAC Tournament Semifinals (Tigers Too Hot To Handle)

AAC Basketball Tournament - Quarterfinals -  UCF v Memphis
AAC Basketball Tournament - Quarterfinals - UCF v Memphis / Ron Jenkins/GettyImages

The 20-9 Memphis Tigers take on the 23-7 SMU Mustangs in the AAC Tournament Semifinals today at 5:30 PM EST.

Memphis is one of the hottest teams in the country, having won 11 of 12 and covering the spread in nine of those victories. They dismantled UCF by 16 in the quarterfinals and beat #1 Houston by 14 in an upset to close out the regular season. In fact, the last team to beat these Tigers was SMU, who smoked Tulsa by 25 to make the semifinals.

The Mustangs had failed to cover the spread in three straight before yesterday's win but swept the regular season series against Memphis, winning the first by eight and the second by 16.

Can SMU make it three in a row or will the Tigers get their revenge as the NCAA Tournament looms?

Here are the odds via WynnBET to help us see where the value lies in this AAC Tournament Semifinal matchup:

Memphis vs SMU Odds, Spread and Total


  • Memphis -4.5 (-110)
  • SMU +4.5 (-110)


  • Memphis: -200
  • SMU: +165


  • 142.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Memphis vs SMU Prediction and Pick

BetSided's Matt De Saro identified these two teams as valuable bets ahead of the AAC Tournament and he's been proven correct. Both squads can make a run in March Madness and could easily find themselves making the second weekend.

But Memphis is on a whole different planet right now. Over their last five games, the Tigers are in the 98th percentile nationally in offensive rating and 92nd in defensive. They've been dominant inside, ranking in the 99th percentile in true shooting percentage and 100th percentile in free throw attempt rate, racking up fouls for freebies at the charity stripe at an insane pace.

In case they do miss, they're in the 100th percentile in offensive rebounding too. SMU is 249th in the country in defensive rebounding percentage, so Memphis will have plenty of second-chance opportunities.

The Mustangs are going to need to hit shots to keep up with the Tigers, but they're in just the 17th percentile in field goal percentage over their last five and I'm concerned about their recent form. Their bench scoring has fallen from the 60th percentile to the 1st in those last five games and they're taking on a Memphis squad desperate for revenge.

The Tigers are too hot and have too many advantages in too many categories to fade. In those first two matchups, they shot just 6/33 from beyond the arc. I expect a better performance and think they keep it rolling right to the AAC Finals.

Pick: Memphis -4.5 (-110)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.