Mexico Open PGA Tour Score Predictions (How Will Top Golfers Fare at Vidanta Vallarta?)
The PGA Tour heads South of the border this week for the Mexico Open at Vidanta.
It's an event featuring one of the weaker fields we'll see in a non-alternate event, but we're still going to do our best to see if we can win a few bets. You can read this week's full betting preview to find out my three best outright bets.
In this article, I'm going to take it one step further and attempt to predict the exact winning score of the tournament, as well as the final score for the top 10 golfers on the odds list.
If you want to bet on this week's event, be sure to click the link below to sign up for an account at FanDuel Sportsbook. If you do, you'll receive $150 in bonus bets if you want your first $5 wager.
Mexico Open score predictions
Winning score: -21
We have two events at Vidanta Vallarta to base our prediction off of, but the winning scores were wildly different. Jon Rahm won it in 2022 with a score of 17-under par and then Tony Finau won it last year with a score of 24-under par, a difference of seven strokes.
I think both examples are outliers and this year's winning score will fall somewhere in between. Let's remember that Finau played one of the best tournaments of his career last year and ran away with the win, beating Rahm by three strokes.
So, we're going to predict a winning score of 21-under par and see what happens.
Tony Finau score prediction: -19
I have no doubt in my mind that Tony Finau will be in contention this week. He's finished second and first in his two starts at this event and he's by far the most talented golfer in the field. The real question is whether or not he'll be able to get the win? I predict he'll finish just short. He's not coming into this event in great form and his putter has been horrific of late, losing significant strokes on the greens in three straight starts.
Nicolai Hojgaard score prediction: -11
Nicolai Hojgaard has been a hot name on the PGA Tour in the early parts of 2024 after finishing second at the Farmers Insurance Open, but T-31 and T-39 finishes in his two most recent starts don't give me confidence in his form heading into this week. I don't think he's deserving of being the second favorite on the odds list.
Emiliano Grillo score prediction: -12
Emiliano Grillo is another golfer whose name recognition is taking him further than his play. He's not long off the tee, which will hurt him at this course, and his game has trended in the wrong direction. Most recently, he finished T-44 at the Genesis Invitational.
Stephan Jaeger score prediction: -15
His latest start being a T-71 at Pebble Beach is concerning, but Stephan Jaeger's game fits this course to perfection. He's one of the longest drivers on Tour and his irons can get extremely hot, like they were when he finished T-3 at the Farmers Insurance Open. His name will be flirting with the top of the leaderboard on Sunday.
Taylor Pendrith score prediction: -20
Taylor Pendrith is another golfer whose distance off the tee will serve as a benefit this week. Unlike some other golfers I've mentioned, Pendrith is coming into this event in good form, finishing T-9 at the Farmers Insurance Open in his latest start. I have the Canadian finishing second this week.
Thomas Detry score prediction: -21
If you read my betting preview, you'd know that Thomas Detry is my pick to win. Not only is he long off the tee, but he's had great success throughout his career putting on paspalum grass, which is the same grass this course uses on the fairways, roughs, and greens. He has also finished T-28 or better in three straight starts.
Keith Mitchell score prediction: -18
Keith Mitchell posted a T-17 finish at the WM Phoenix Open and now the long driver has a chance to take advantage of a weak field in Mexico. Unfortunately, his approach game isn't going to be good enough to get the win, but his driving alone will be enough to have him in the conversation on the weekend.
Davis Thompson final score prediction: -8
Davis Thompson is a bit of a streaky golfer, but when his game is firing on all cylinders then he'd be a great fit for this course with his distance off the tee. The problem is, we don't know which version of him will show up this week.
Erik Van Rooyen final score prediction: Missed Cut
Erik Van Rooyen is a popular pick this week, but missing the cut at the WM Phoenix Open is a huge red flag for me. His game may just be trending in the wrong direction and his short game has been abysmal over the past few months. I think he's going to disappoint some bettors this week.
Patrick Rodgers final score prediction: -13
Patrick Rodgers' recent form isn't good, but he's long off the tee and has put together some solid ball-striking starts as well. He'll need to move on from last week's missed cut at the Genesis if he wants to compete this week, but he may be able to shine in the weakest field he will have played in this year.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.