Miami (OH) vs. Appalachian State Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for Avocados From Mexico Cure Bowl

Miami (Ohio) won the MAC title game and gets a stiff test yet again to close out its season, taking on Sun Belt Championship runners-up Appalachian State in the Cure Bowl on Saturday, December 16th.

Miami (Ohio) is likely to be without its backup quarterback, Aveon Smith, who navigated the RedHawks to the conference title and is now in the transfer portal. How will that change our ability to bet the Cure Bowl against a strong Appalachian State offense? The RedHawks defense has been its strength all year, let's assess the betting market.

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Miami (Ohio) vs. Appalachian State Odds, Spread and Total

Appalachian State vs. Miami (Ohio) Betting Trends

• Miami (Ohio) is 10-3 against the spread (ATS) this season
• Appalachian State is 6-6-1 ATS this season
• Appalachian State went OVER in seven of 13 games this season
• Miami's Chuck Martin is 4-0 ATS in bowl games

Miami (Ohio) vs. Appalachian State How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, December 16th
• Game Time: 3:30 PM EST
• Venue: FBC Mortgage Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): ABC
• Miami (Ohio) Record: 11-2
• Appalachian State Record: 8-5

Miami (Ohio) vs. Appalachian State Key Players to Watch

Miami (Ohio)

Henry Hesson: The third-stringer for the RedHawks attempted five passes last season and none this season, but is likely going to draw the start for the team in the Cure Bowl after the news that Smith is hitting the transfer portal. Smith is a limited passer and the RedHawks lean on its defense to do the heavy lifting anyway, 22nd in EPA/Play. Can Hesson keep the team on schedule and avoid any critical errors?

Appalachian State

Joey Aguilar: The JUCO transfer has led an explosive passing attack for the Mountaineers, top 10 in EPA/Play this season, which led to a late-season run to the Sun Belt Championship Game. Even in a losing effort, Aguilar was great in this game as well, passing for 275 yards on 28-of-39 passes against an elite Troy defense. Can he show up against another G5 champion?

Miami (Ohio) vs. Appalachian State Prediction and Pick

Hesson drawing the start enters a shadow of doubt in betting this game, but it's hard to be confident in the sophomore's ability given that Smith wasn't a potent passer by any means. The RedHawks have a stout defense, but Appalachian State may be able to push the score too far for Miami to match.

While facing elite teams such as Troy and James Madison, App. State's offense was rarely slowed down. The team scored 26 or more in the final five regular games of the season and then 23 on Troy which included a 50% success rate (88th percentile when compared to games in the 2022 season, per gameonpaper.com).

While Miami's defense may slow down the Appalachian State offense for parts of the game, the offense won't hold up its end of the bargain. The unit is already 112th in success rate this season and is onto a third-string quarterback with little to no experience. The Mountaineers' defense is aggressive, gaining 21 turnovers on the season (top 20 in the country) and is top 30 in tackles for loss.

I like App. State to hit enough explosives to push this game out of reach for the MAC champs and cover the spread.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here!