Mike Evans vs. Antonio Brown vs. Devonta Smith: Who Will Catch More Passes on Thursday?

Thursday Night Football gives us the opportunity to see some fireworks in the passing game. 

Both the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Philadelphia Eagles play at a top five pace, and bottom six in defensive passing success rate. 

You can check out our best bets for TNF here, as well as how to play a pair of running backs receiving yard props, but let’s talk about how three key wideouts will fare in the passing game, with odds courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles: 6 Receptions (Over -125/Under -115)

The first round pick is leading the Eagles in targets this season, 39 through five games, and is catching nearly 74% of them over his last two games. 

Six is a high watermark, but the game script should favor the over. The Bucs are one of the best run stopping teams in the league, second best in defensive rush success rate, so I’m expecting a heavy dose of passes. Not to mention, the Eagles are a touchdown underdog, so it’s implied that the team will be playing catch up against the high-octane Tampa Bay offense, another indicator for a lot of Philly passes.

Smith has seven catches in his last two, and the targets are going his way against a soft secondary, I like the over.

Mike Evans Over 5.5 Receptions (Over -115/Under -125)

Evans has been force-fed since Week 1, averaging nearly 10 targets per game. 

There is some concern around Tom Brady’s hand injury, but I don’t see Tampa’s aerial attack slowing down. Evans is Brady’s favorite target in the red zone, and the Eagles are one of the worst red zone defenses in the league, so I’m expecting him to find success there. 

The price being shaded towards the under is interesting, but I’m not buying it. I also like Evans to score a touchdown at +100.

Antonio Brown Over 5 Receptions (Over -125/Under -115)

This is another over play. Evans is being targeted heavily, but the Bucs are passing on nearly 70% of plays, most in the league, there is enough to go around for the whole wide receiving corps.

Over his last two games, Brown has 19 targets and is Brady’s favorite short yard threat. I expect another high volume passing game in a matchup with a high total. I’d argue the former Pittsburgh Steelers star is Brady’s favorite weapon in standard downs, and he can easily push seven catches. 

Lastly, the Eagles have the worst defense on first down pass success, per SharpFootballStats, and I'm banking on Brady to drop back and find Brown underneath often.

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