MLB Best Bets for Every Game Today (October 13)

Major League Baseball shifts its focus from the NLDS to the ALDS on Thursday, as the New York Yankees and Houston Astros look to ride home-field advantages to 2-0 series leads. 

We have a ton of great pitchers on the mound on Thursday, as Shane Bieber (Cleveland) and Nestor Cortes (New York) battle in the Bronx while Luis Castillo (Seattle) and Framber Valdez (Houston) square off at Minute Maid Park. 

BetSided’s team has a pick for each of these games, as well as a special prop bet to add to the mix for your MLB betting tonight. 

Let’s dive in: 

Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros Prediction and Best Bet

• Pick: First Five Innings UNDER 3.5 (-118)

The Seattle Mariners traded for Luis Castillo for spots like this, and he already showed his worth to this club in the Wild Card round, shutting down the vaunted Toronto Blue Jays lineup, shutting them out over 7.1 innings.

Now, he faces a Houston Astros team that is more disciplined at the plate, sporting a top 10 walk rate and sixth in wRC+. While Castillo hasn't faced the Astros since being traded to the Mariners, he has been a better pitcher in Seattle, lowering his walk rate and raising his strikeout rate. The Astros are going to challenge him, but he has the fastball movement to force the Astros into mistakes and soft contact.

Meanwhile, Framber Valdez has looked great against Seattle all season, pitching into the seventh inning both times and striking out at least seven in both. On the season, the lefty has pitched the most innings in the big leagues at 201.1 and has a 2.82.

Seattle is 23rd in batting average against southpaws and this could be tough sledding for the M’s against an iron man like Valdez. I'll look at the first five under as my favorite play in this one with both pitchers set to shine early. However, I don't want to be involved with this Seattle bullpen after what happened in Game 1. – Reed Wallach

Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Prediction and Best Bet 

• Pick: UNDER 6 (-102)

Shane Bieber was at the top of his game against the Tampa Bay Rays, making one mistake during nearly eight innings of work on Friday, a solo home run by Jose Siri in the sixth inning. Besides that, it was a Bieber masterclass and I believe that he can shove again against this New York Yankees lineup.

Bieber has been getting better and better as the season has gone on, pitching to 2.48 ERA since the All-Star Break. He has nearly doubled his strikeout-to-walk ratio looking at first half to second half going from 4.24 to 8.36. I don't believe this Yankees lineup is deep enough to challenge Bieber and he can get through this game relatively unscathed.

However, the Cleveland Guardians are hitting below .240 as a team against lefties and are struggling at the plate in the postseason. The team has scored four runs in three games against the Rays and Yankees and I'm concerned that they can challenge Cortes.

I'll go with the under on Thursday night with two excellent pitchers on the mound. – Reed Wallach

Best Prop Bet for ALDS Game 2 Action

• Pick: Austin Hedges UNDER 0.5 Hits (-130)

Austin Hedges is one of three catchers on the roster for the Guardians, and the broadcast made a point in Game 1 to mention that they could pinch hit for a catcher at any time because of their struggles at the plate. So, if Hedges gets the start in Game 2, there’s a good chance he doesn’t play the entire game if it's close. 

Hedges hit .024 over his last 16 games of the regular season, recording just one hit over that stretch, and he’s 0-for-10 this postseason. Not ideal. 

To make matters worse, Hedges hit just .147 against left-handed pitching this season, so Nestor Cortes should have no problem making quick work of him in this lineup. – Peter Dewey

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.