MLB Best Bets for Every Game Today (October 17)
By Peter Dewey
The New York Yankees host the Cleveland Guardians on Monday night with a trip to the ALCS on the line.
Just like we all hoped for, Jameson Taillon gets the ball for New York against Aaron Civale in this winner-take-all matchup.
Yes, the pitching isn’t exactly what you’d expect, but it doesn’t mean we can’t place some bets on this contest. Here are two of my favorites for Game 5 of the ALDS:
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Prediction and Best Bets
- Yankees Moneyline (-158)
- Austin Hedges UNDER 0.5 Hits (-150)
New York Yankees Moneyline (-158)
The Yankees paid Gerrit Cole a ton of money to be their ace, and he delivered in this series, throwing 13.1 innings and allowing just three runs in both of New York’s wins.
Cole’s performance in Game 4 has to have energized this Yankees squad, and New York has jumped on the Guardians early in two of the last three games. With Civale on the mound, I think there is value on New York getting off to a hot start.
Civale had an ERA over five in the first inning this season, so it’s a bit of a risk for Cleveland to even pitch him in this spot. However, with rain pushing back Game 2, the Guardians always knew that a Game 5 would likely come down to the bullpen.
Yes, Taillon didn’t look good in relief in Game 2, but he’s also never been in that role in his career. This should be a much more familiar position for him, and he did throw five innings of one-run ball in his lone start against the Guardians in 2022.
The bullpen is obviously an issue for New York, but the Yankees have a better offense and more firepower to get this done at home.
Austin Hedges UNDER 0.5 Hits
Austin Hedges is just 1-for-14 for the Guardians this postseason, and the team has pinch hit for him in multiple games since they are carrying three catchers on the roster.
That means Hedges could only see two at bats in this matchup, and he’s put together just two hits dating all the way back to Sept. 14. There’s a reason the Guardians have turned away from him late in games, and his season-long stats (.163 batting average) give me very little confidence that he picks up a hit in Game 5.
Even with Jameson Taillon on the mound for the Yanks, the UNDER is the only way to play this Hedges hits prop.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.