MLB Best Bets Today (Another Day, Another Astros Fade)

On a limited 8-game slate in the Majors this evening, we're looking at an early AL East showdown in Toronto, a strikeout prop for one of the most underrated pitchers in the National League, and a road dog in Houston.

Let's break down our favorite bets on the board for Monday, May 2nd with odds courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook. 

MLB Best Bets Today

• Yankees vs. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5 (-115)
• Pablo Lopez OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-130)
• Mariners (+123) vs. Astros

Yankees vs. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5 (-115)

At first glance, seeing two of the best offenses in baseball with a low total in a hitters park like the Rogers Centre feels like an easy auto-bet on the over, but both Jordan Montgomery of the Yankees and Ross Stripling of the Jays have been excellent at limiting hard contact this year.

Stripling's hard hit percentage via MLB Statcast, along with his exit velocity allowed rank amongst the highest percentiles in the league. BetSided's Reed Wallach also pointed out in his Yankees vs. Jays preview that Stripling's fielder-independent-pitching numbers indicate he's been even better than his ERA would suggest.

Montgomery has also been very good, while holding an expected weighted-on-base-average (xwOBA) of .298; 0.22 points below league average.

It may feel like a slugfest is in play, but the numbers say a different story.

Pablo Lopez OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (-130)

BetSided's Joe Summers wrote up Lopez's strikeout prop as one of his favorite prop bets of the day, and the movement at most books is in full agreement. Lopez's strikeout prop has now been moved up to 6.5 at several books as the Miami Marlins host the Arizona Diamondbacks this evening.

Lopez has a 0.39 ERA this season and has not allowed a run in his last three starts. Summers also points out that he's hit the over on this number of strikeouts in five of his last seven starts going back to 2021.

Arizona remains a bottom-three offense in the league, and while they've got a fighting chance with Zac Gallen on the mound (0.60 ERA), I think that's likely to give Lopez even more innings in a close game; allowing for more opportunities to rack up strikeouts in the process.

Mariners (+123) vs. Astros

BetSided's Iain MacMillan is once again fading Houston at home, as books still seem to be overvaluing their offense like it's one of the Astros teams of the last several years.

Jake Odorizzi is averaging just under five walks per nine innings. Combine that with the Mariners leading the Majors in walk percentage, it could be an ugly night at the juice box.