MLB Best Bets Today (Feast on Two Home Dogs to Eat, Back Over on Short Strikeout Prop in Milwaukee)

Prior to his May injury, Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Freddy Peralta was averaging more than 12 strikeouts per nine innings. His prop is set for 5.5.
Prior to his May injury, Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Freddy Peralta was averaging more than 12 strikeouts per nine innings. His prop is set for 5.5. / Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

On Sunday, I focused our "Best MLB Bets" column squarely on the Yankees vs. Red Sox for Sunday Night Baseball, and walked away with an 0-3 record.

Not ideal, to say the least.

However, the BetSided team had another solid week overall, particularly with our MLB props in the early going.

Best MLB Bets Today

  • Nationals +122 vs. Cubs - WynnBET
  • Brewers +152 vs. Dodgers - WynnBET
  • Freddy Peralta OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (+115) - DraftKings Sportsbook

Washington Nationals +122 vs. Chicago Cubs

"Ben, you want to bet on the worst team in baseball against your favorite team? Do you know something we don't?"

I'm not actively seeking out opportunities to bet against the Cubs, but in today's case, I like the matchup for Josiah Gray in his second straight matchup against Chicago.

On the road at Wrigley his last time out, Gray was outstanding; going 6.1 IP with just two hits, no walks and five strikeouts.

Meanwhile, Stroman's last outing vs. Washington was fairly mediocre to below-average, going just five innings; giving up two bombs and four earned runs. He tends to run hot and cold, and so far in his two starts in August, he's given up four home runs in both. With more humid temperatures expected in D.C, even the putrid Nats' lineup might tag Stro for a few more tonight.

Milwaukee Brewers +152 vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

If you're going to go against the Dodgers, you almost always do it on the moneyline as a big underdog. L.A. has won 79 games; 71 of them by more than two runs.

Their 12-game winning streak came to an end in Kansas City Sunday afternoon, and I expect their bats to struggle again vs. Freddy Peralta and the Brewers in Milwaukee. Over his career, Peralta has been a far superior pitcher at home vs. on the road (although this year in a limited sample, it's been the opposite), and the Brewers are 8-3 over their last 11 home games.

I get that the Brewers have had their issues vs. left-handed pitching, and Urías has not allowed more than two earned runs in a start since July 10, but with Peralta back healthy, I expect him to deal and keep Milwaukee very much in this game, and the value at over +150 feels like a steal.

Freddy Peralta OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (+115) - Brewers vs. Dodgers

Peralta has failed to hit this number in his last two starts since returning from injury, but with his third game back, I expect Milwaukee to turn him loose.

Prior to his last three starts, Peralta hit this over in all but one of his previous seven starts in 2022. During that stretch, he averaged over 12 strikeouts per nine innings, while only allowing one home run in 35.2 innings.

The Dodgers are a tough out, but then again, facing Peralta isn't a walk in the park either. If he's truly back and healthy, he should clear this line even against the league's best.

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