Betsided

MLB Best Bets for Yankees vs. Red Sox on Sunday Night Baseball (Back Runs, Rizzo and This Taillon Under in Boston)

By Ben Heisler

New York Yankees starting pitcher Jameson Taillon struggled in his last game at Fenway Park, allowing six earned runs in 5 IP with 3 HRs.
New York Yankees starting pitcher Jameson Taillon struggled in his last game at Fenway Park, allowing six earned runs in 5 IP with 3 HRs. / Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports
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The New York Yankees may hold a 16.5-game lead over their longtime rivals in the standings, but the oddsmakers have their matchup in Boston against the Red Sox as another close game.

That's how the first two games have gone, with both teams exchanging 3-2 victories at Fenway Park on Friday and Saturday night.

The Yankees enter tonight as a -124 moneyline road favorite at WynnBET Sportsbook against the Red Sox (+114), as well as -1.5 on the run line at +127 odds. Those backing Boston can get them at +1.5, but at odds of -155.

The total remains at 9, but heavy juice is on the OVER at -130.

Here are my three favorite bets for tonight's Yankees Red Sox showdown under the bright lights. You can also find our betting preview for tonight's Sunday Night Baseball matchup HERE.

Sunday Night Baseball Best Bets for Yankees vs. Red Sox

  • Anthony Rizzo OVER 0.5 Singles (+120) - DraftKings Sportsbook
  • Yankees vs. Red Sox OVER 9 (+130) - WynnBET Sportsbook
  • Jameson Taillon UNDER 17.5 Outs Recorded (-115) - DraftKings/BetMGM

Anthony Rizzo OVER 0.5 Singles (+120)

I'm tempted to take the OVER 1.5 total bases (+115) instead with another short porch at Fenway Park for Rizzo to clobber, but the numbers back the singles prop here.

In 49 career ABs vs. Red Sox starter Michael Wacha, Rizzo has 21 hits; 16 have gone for singles. Despite his long career as a power hitter from the left-side, that simply has not been his MO in this matchup with a fairly large sample size.

These props always sting a little if they get an extra base hit that's not a single, but I think this provides the better odds for Rizzo in the Sunday Night matchup.

Yankees vs. Red Sox OVER 9 (+130)

My immediate attention gravitated to the over at WynnBET, who seems to be one of the lone sportsbooks to not push this number over to 9.5 as of this writing. That's fine with me, as I'm happy to lay some more juice for a far better number in this matchup.

Taillon's put up solid numbers for New York this year, but his 11-2 record is not a reflection of him being all that dominant. His ERA is just under 4 and his strikeouts-per-nine are only at 7.76; almost a full strikeout less than a season ago. In his two starts vs. the Red Sox back in July, he was solid for one game at home (6 IP, 1 ER), but struggled in Fenway; going only five innings and allowing three homers.

As for Wacha, the overall numbers in his limited starts this year look pretty good. He's 6-1 in 13 starts with a 2.69 ERA. However, the metrics indicate some serious regression on the horizon; evidenced by an expected ERA (xERA) that's more than two full runs above his regular ERA at 4.77. His expected Fielder Independent Pitching (xFIP) also suggests the same.

Between clear skies and a slight breeze in Boston tonight, I'm backing both offenses to wake up under the national spotlight.

Jameson Taillon UNDER 17.5 Outs Recorded (-115)

As mentioned above, Taillon's last start in Boston did not go well; giving up three bombs in a short outing.

That might seem like an unfair sample to use, but consider that Taillon's ERA goes from 3.61 at home to 4.39 on the road, as well as his strikeouts per nine drop from 8.55 down to 6.75, and now there's a reasonable trend to consider.

Taillon's already not the strikeout artist he once was, and if he's not missing bats in the short porches at Fenway, it could make for another short outing on Sunday night.

Follow all of Ben's betting plays in real-time HERE!

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