MLB Best Bets Today (Giants Keep Getting Overlooked vs. Phillies)
By Ben Heisler
For Tuesday's "MLB Best Bets," we're targeting a short underdog on the road, a surprising short home favorite, and a certain over for strikeouts on a top prospect's Big League debut in 2022.
All odds are courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.
MLB Best Bets for Tuesday, May 31
- Giants +115 at Phillies
- Red Sox -137 vs. Reds
- Eduard Cabrera OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (-135) at Rockies
Giants +115 at Phillies
Both BetSided's Matt De Saro, as well as Joe Summers have the Giants winning outright in Philadelphia tonight, and I'm happy to join the bandwagon with Ranger Suárez on the hill for the Phillies.
After a solid start to the season, the 26-year old lefty has started tossing B.P in his last two starts; lasting just 7.1 innings, allowing 8 earned runs with six walks to just nine strikeouts. The ERA is exactly where it's supposed to be, with Suárez's Fielder Independent Pitching (FIP) numbers just a tad below at 4.74.
As for Junis, while he's set for some regression (2.76 ERA compared to a 3.81 FIP), he's drastically decreased his walk rate and HR/9 this year, while bringing his ground ball rate to 49%; the highest of his career by a massive margin.
As long as he continues to keep the ball down, the Giants' should get runs on the board easily vs Suárez and take the second game of the series as slight road dogs.
Red Sox -137 vs. Reds
As Joe Summers points out, the Reds are 4-17 over their last 21 games as a road underdog, and while they got shut out vs. a bad Orioles team on Monday; I wouldn't hold it against them against an even worse team at home tonight.
Cincinnati is thrilled to have Luis Castillo back in the rotation, but in four starts, he's yet to go more than six innings in any of them. The Reds own the third-worst bullpen ERA in baseball this year at 4.82, as well as the highest FIP at 4.50.
Between the Red Sox' dynamic bats for much of the month, the price of -137 odds doesn't feel like enough to deter me from taking them against arguably the worst team in the league.
Eduard Cabrera OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (-135) at Rockies
Cabrera is the No.1 ranked pitching prospect in the Marlins system. While it's sub-optimal to start off your Big League season at Coors Field, the stuff still plays with tons of swings-and-misses.
In the minors, Cabrera in five starts at Triple-A averaged 12.17 strikeouts per nine innings. He averaged just over 4.5 walks per nine as well, but the Marlins have every reason to put Cabrera in the best position possible to succeed, and he's certainly capable of hitting this number vs. an inconsistent Rockies lineup.
Follow all of Ben Heisler's betting plays in real-time HERE
