MLB Best Bets Today (Keep Fading Yankees, Padres Until Bats Wake Up)

New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge (99) looks out during New York's 4-0 shutout loss to the Tampa Bay Rays on Monday night.
New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge (99) looks out during New York's 4-0 shutout loss to the Tampa Bay Rays on Monday night. / Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Monday's "best bets" in Major League Baseball went 1-2 last night; backing two sizable home underdogs in the Washington Nationals and Milwaukee Brewers. While the Nats came through with a big inning vs. the Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee's bats went silent against the L.A. Dodgers and Julio Urías in a shutout loss.

If you think I've learned my lesson, I haven't. I'm back this Tuesday taking two more home underdogs with advantageous matchups against some struggling offenses, while also backing one of the starting pitcher's strikeout props in this ideal spot.

Here are my top three favorite baseball bets for Tuesday, August 16, with the most favorable odds from their respective sportsbooks posted below.

MLB Best Bets Today

  • Marlins (+132) vs. Padres - WynnBET
  • Rays (+152) at Yankees - WynnBET
  • Jeffrey Springs OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-127) - Caesars

Miami Marlins (+132) vs. San Diego Padres

NL Cy Young favorite Sandy Alcantara shut down the struggling Padres on Monday night in Miami, and rookie Edward Cabrera gets his turn against the much-maligned San Diego lineup tonight.

Cabrera's due for some regression soon enough with an ERA of 2.05 but a FIP of 3.84. However, he's still striking out more than 27% of hitters while also allowing a strong ground ball rate of just under 56%. Since the start of August, the Padres own the fourth-worst batting average in baseball at .187, and the third-worst weighted on-base average (.236) in the Majors.

If Cabrera continues to miss bats, and when he doesn't, keep it in the friendly pitcher confines of Marlins Park, Miami should continue to set up for success against the struggling Sean Manaea.

Tampa Bay Rays (+152) at New York Yankees

Much like the Padres, August has not been kind to the Bronx Bombers.

The Yankees have just three wins in August and are 2-8 over their last 10 games with a putrid .212 batting average. Meanwhile, when the Rays keep the ball in the park, they're 29-12 this year when they don't allow a home run.

Tampa's starter, Jeffrey Springs, has not allowed more than one home run in his last four starts, including his last three away from Tropicana Field. The Yankees haven't been able to score for starter Nestor Cortes of late either, and I see that trend continuing tonight.

Jeffrey Springs OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-127) - Rays at Yankees

The Yankees are striking out the 10th-most in baseball in the month of August, and Springs has posted a strikeout rate of nearly 27% this season, including passing this line in his last three games.

Matter of fact, he's hit this over in all but one start since May 21 this year despite only averaging a little over 5 IP per start.

I think this line is brought down because of the Yankees' overall offensive numbers, but since we're already fading them, Springs should continue this trend on Tuesday night.