MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for Frankie Montas, Blue Jays-Twins and Rays-Tigers on Sunday)
By Peter Dewey
There are several solid matchups in Major League Baseball on Sunday, and I have a moneyline play, a total and one player prop to dive into in today's MLB Best Bets column.
Kevin Gausman and the Toronto Blue Jays are trying to pick up more ground on the New York Yankees, who will send new acquisition Frankie Montas to the mound on Sunday.
Meanwhile the Tampa Bay Rays and Detroit Tigers will battle in a matchup of two of baseball's worst offenses... I wonder how we should bet that?
Let's jump into today's picks:
MLB Best Bets Today
- Toronto Blue Jays ML vs. Minnesota Twins (-165)
- Tampa Bay Rays-Detroit Tigers UNDER 8 (+100)
- Frankie Montas OVER 14.5 Outs Recorded (-190)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins: Blue Jays ML (-165)
I have been off of the Chris Archer train for a few weeks now, as he’s really struggled with his control, walking 16 batters over his last four starts and the Twins have gone 0-4 in those games.
That’s a bad sign when you’re going up against Kevin Gausman, who threw eight innings of one-hit ball in a win over the Tampa Bay Rays his last time out.
The Jays have been one of the hotter teams in baseball in the second half of the season, and they rank third in OPS and third in runs scored over the month.
I can’t back Archer here, especially since his ERA has ballooned over 4.00 with his struggles recently.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers: UNDER 8 (+100)
I don’t love backing the Rays at this number, so instead I’m going to lean
Drew Rasmussen does give me a little confidence, as he’s been lights out since July, compiling a 2.37 ERA over his last six starts. The Rays are 4-2 in those games.
Matt Manning is making his fourth start of the season for Detroit, and he’s been solid, allowing three or fewer runs in his first three outings in 2022.
I think this could lead to some value on the UNDER, as these teams both have strong bullpens. Detroit is fourth in bullpen ERA this season while the Rays come in at eighth.
Neither offense has been good lately, both ranking in the bottom 10 in OPS over the last 15 days and ranking 30th (Detroit) and 25th (Tampa Bay) in the category for the season.
I’ll back the UNDER in the series finale at plus money.
Frankie Montas OVER 14.5 Outs Recorded (-190)
Frankie Montas is making his debut for the New York Yankees, and I think this line is set way too low, and is worth taking despite the -190 juice.
Montas pitched just three innings in his first start for Oakland off the injured list, but his last start he went five innings and only needed 78 pitches to do so.
In 19 starts this season, Montas has gotten through five innings in all but three outings, and two were due to his recent injury.
Even though the St. Louis Cardinals are a solid team, this is a no-brainer pick for the newest Yankee starter.
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.