MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for Johnny Cueto, Mets-Reds and Braves-Cardinals on July 4)
By Peter Dewey
Sunday was a solid day in our MLB Best Bets Today column, as we hit player props on Brandon Woodruff and Nolan Arenado.
We’re looking to stay hot on this holiday, with three more picks for the Fourth of July. I’m eyeing a pitcher prop in the Chicago White Sox-Minnesota Twins game, as well as a pair of favorites in the National League.
Let’s jump into the picks, with odds via WynnBET:
MLB Best Bets Today
- Atlanta Braves Moneyline vs. St. Louis Cardinals (-170)
- Johnny Cueto OVER 15.5 Outs Recorded (-125)
- New York Mets Moneyline vs. Cincinnati Reds (-155)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves: Braves Moneyline (-170)
The Atlanta Braves and St. Louis Cardinals are two of the better teams in the NL, but I’m fading St. Louis starter Dakota Hudson on Monday.
Hudson has been dreadful as of late, allowing 16 runs over his last four starts, and pitching just 21.1 innings in those games. On the season, his ERA is still just 3.83, but his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) sits at 4.45, showing that he has been a bit lucky.
On the Braves side, Kyle Wright has been solid all year, and he is coming off a seven-inning, one-run game against the Philadelphia Phillies.
I think the Braves have a major pitching edge and win this game easily.
Johnny Cueto OVER 15.5 Outs Recorded (-125)
Johnny Cueto has been a pleasant surprise for the Chicago White Sox, posting a 3.33 ERA in eight starts (nine appearances) this season.
Cueto has also given the team some solid length, pitching 5.1 or more innings in every one of his starts. Today, his prop for outs recorded is set at 15.5, meaning Cueto needs to work into the sixth inning to clear this number.
Since he has done it in every start this season, I am not worried about backing him against a solid Minnesota Twins lineup. Cueto hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in a start since May, and he should be able to pitch decently deep into this matchup.
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: Mets Moneyline (-155)
It’s rare that we will get the New York Mets, one of the best teams in baseball, at this number against the horrible Cincinnati Reds, so we might as well jump on it.
Hunter Greene will get the start for Cincy, and he’s had to take his lumps in his rookie season, posting a 5.72 ERA and he’s allowed 3-plus runs in five of his last seven starts. His lone three-run game in that stretch came in just four innings of work.
Meanwhile, Taijuan Walker has a 2.72 ERA and has allowed more than three runs in just two of his 13 starts in 2022. The Mets should be able to tee off on Greene to give Walker more than enough support to win on Monday.
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.