MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for Orioles-Blue Jays, Zac Gallen and Mets-Reds on Monday)
By Peter Dewey
We’ve got a short slate in Major League Baseball on Monday, but there are a few bets that I have my eye on after hitting two of the three picks in yesterday’s MLB Best Bets column.
I’m backing a couple pitchers that I love today in Zac Gallen and Chris Bassitt, as well as the still-hot Baltimore Orioles, who are working their way into contention for an AL wild card spot even though they were sellers at the deadline.
Let’s get into today’s picks, with odds from DraftKings Sportsbook:
MLB Best Bets Today
- Baltimore Orioles ML vs. Toronto Blue Jays (+115)
- Zac Gallen UNDER 4.5 Hits Allowed (+120)
- Cincinnati Reds-New York Mets UNDER 9 (-115)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: Orioles ML (+115)
There isn’t a single team in baseball that is better on the run line than the Baltimore Orioles, who are 70-38 on the run line and 35-17 on the run line at home this season.
The Blue Jays offense is the main reason why Toronto is favored in this spot, as Yusei Kikuchi has arguably been their worst starter this season. The Jays are just 6-12 in Kikuchi’s starts and just 3-6 over his last nine outings.
The veteran lefty has also gone more than five innings in a start just once in his last 11 outings. Not ideal.
I think there’s value in backing a hot Orioles squad at home, and the O’s clearly have the bullpen advantage, ranking third in baseball in bullpen ERA.
Zac Gallen UNDER 4.5 Hits Allowed (+120)
Zac Gallen has fallen off a bit after a hot start to the 2022 season, but he has an easy matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates on Monday night.
Over the last 15 days, the Pirates have the second fewest hits in baseball, registering 94 in 13 games. They did pick up five hits against Gallen back on June 5, but since then Gallen has posted six starts allowing four or fewer hits.
Pittsburgh has the fourth worst average over the last few weeks, and Gallen is really starting to get back on track with a 2.22 ERA and a .177 opponent batting average over his last four starts.
Cincinnati Reds-New York Mets UNDER 9 (-115)
Reds starter Justin Dunn hasn’t been great in Triple-A this season, going 0-3 with a 6.92 ERA, but he did show some promise during his time in Seattle.
Mets starter Chris Bassitt threw a gem against the Washington Nationals his last time out, and he has a 2.52 ERA over his last eight outings.
The Mets are looking like a legit World Series contender after taking four of five from the Braves, and I think they can hold down a Reds team that was depleted at the trade deadline.
Cincy has combined for less than nine runs in six of its last seven games, and losing Brandon Drury has been a big blow to the team’s lineup. The Mets have played some high-scoring games against the Nationals and Braves recently, but I can’t trust this Cincy offense against Bassitt when he’s pitching this well.
Hopefully Dunn can hold the Mets down enough to let us cash this UNDER bet on Monday.
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.