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MLB Best Bets Today (Taijuan Walker Due For Bounce Back Game in Mets vs. Reds)

By Donnavan Smoot

Jul 31, 2022; Miami, Florida, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Taijuan Walker (99) delivers a
Jul 31, 2022; Miami, Florida, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Taijuan Walker (99) delivers a / Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
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Yesterday’s strategy of three “outs recorded” props wasn’t the most successful, as we went 1-2 on the day. The only bet that cashed was Shohei Ohtani, but that’s okay. I have three more props ready to lock and load today.

Today, I’m backing one of the best pitchers on an elite team and looking at how to properly bet the Giants-Padres matchup. 

Let’s get to it. 

MLB Best Bets Today

  • Taijuan Walker OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-125) – BetRivers Sportsbook
  • Jakob Junis OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (+110) – FanDuel Sportsbook
  • Sean Manaea OVER 17.5 Outs Recorded (-130) – BetMGM Sportsbook

Taijuan Walker OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-125) – New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds

Walker is in a slump right now. He’s come under this line in three straight games, but we’re betting on some positive regression tonight.

The Reds have the fourth-highest strikeout rate in the league. That means tonight, we’re betting on a great pitcher to have a decent game against a terrible strikeout team.

Yup. I like that bet. 

Jakob Junis OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (+110) – FanDuel Sportsbook

Junis isn’t a strikeout artist by any means, but this is a short line at plus-money. Junis has cleared this line in four of his last six games. Even in less than four innings against the Dodgers, Junis was able to rack up five strikeouts.

The Padres are 15th in strikeout percentage at home this season. Junis, if he gets the proper amount of innings, should be able to capitalize on their average efforts.

Sean Manaea OVER 17.5 Outs Recorded (-130) – BetMGM Sportsbook

Manaea is coming off one of his worst starts of the season, giving up 10 hits and eight runs in four innings against the Dodgers. I doubt he’s going to pitch that way in a second straight start, so I’ll back him to stay on the mound today. 

The Padres have a pretty consistent plan when it comes to Manaea’s outings. If he’s playing well, he goes six innings. He’s recorded at least 18 outs in three of his last five starts and in six of the last 10 starts. He bounces back fairly well too, so I’ll trust him to power the Padres forward tonight. 

You can find Donnavan Smoot’s full betting record here.

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